How Will China Retaliate Against Trump Tariffs? China Has Been ‘Preparing’ | Keyu Jin
Nov 27, 2024
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Keyu Jin, a global economist and author of "The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism," delves into the intricacies of China-U.S. relations if Trump returns to power. She discusses China's strategic responses to tariffs and the evolving dynamics with other trading partners. The conversation highlights the emerging influence of a new generation of Chinese consumers and the challenges posed by population decline. Jin also explores potential shifts toward China's technology ambitions and the impact of recent stimulus measures on the economy.
China is diversifying its trade relationships to mitigate the effects of U.S. tariffs while strengthening alliances globally.
The new generation of Chinese consumers prioritizes experiences and innovation, indicating a shift towards a service-oriented economy.
Deep dives
China's Evolving Trade Strategy
China has adapted its trade strategy in response to potential tariffs from a second Trump presidency, indicating a more managed and engagement-driven approach compared to the previous administration. Chinese authorities believe they can withstand heavy tariffs, as they have already been transitioning their trade to other partners. This involves diversifying their trade relationships, particularly in Europe and developing countries, while reducing reliance on the U.S. The goal is to strengthen existing alliances and pursue new trade agreements to mitigate the impact of any discounted trade with the U.S.
Impact of Tariffs on Chinese Tech and EV Sectors
Despite facing potential tariffs, China's technology and electric vehicle (EV) sectors remain resilient and strategically focused on global expansion. Companies like Huawei have thrived under sanctions, prompting innovations that have turned restrictions into competitive advantages. The dominance of Chinese firms in the EV market is amplified by foreign direct investments in production plants across various countries. As U.S.-imposed tariffs affect the auto sector, China is likely to recalibrate its investments and manufacturing strategies, prioritizing markets less impacted by such geopolitical tensions.
Generational Shifts in Consumer Behavior
The new generation of Chinese consumers is showing distinct shifts in spending habits and attitudes compared to previous generations, favoring experiences over material accumulation. Despite earning lower incomes, they are more willing to invest in lifestyle choices such as travel and technology, signaling a cultural shift towards valuing quality of life and innovation. This generational perspective is underpinned by greater financial interdependence within families, where older family members support younger ones financially. As these changing consumption patterns evolve, they may contribute to a stronger service-oriented economy in China.
China's Demographic and Economic Challenges
China faces significant demographic challenges, including a declining fertility rate and an aging population, which could affect future economic growth. However, the immediate concern appears less about population size and more about skills mismatches in the workforce. Even with low birth rates, China has millions of underemployed workers in rural areas, suggesting that labor supply may not be a significant issue in the short term. The focus should be on technology and productivity advancements that can leverage available human resources to maintain economic strength amidst shifting demographic realities.
Keyu Jin, global economist and author of "The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism," discusses the outlook for China-U.S. relations under a second Trump term, and how a new generation of Chinese consumers will influence the economy.
*This video was recorded on November 22, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
0:40 - China’s response to tariffs
4:00 - China’s other trading partners
7:21 - Tech company bans
9:00 - EVs and tariffs
10:52 - More Chinese stimulus
12:18 - Chinese foreign policy
13:30 - Impact of Chinese stimulus
14:38 - Chinese real estate
18:55 - Next generation of Chinese consumers
23:44 - Productivity of the new generation
25:30 - Emigration from China
27:00 - The new generation and CCP
28:55 - Population decline
31:10 - Ageing population
32:10 - The next tech superpower?
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