This week we talk about war, inflation, and currency devaluation.
We also discuss tyrants, police violence, and social media threats.
Recommended Book: Post-Growth Living by Kate Soper
Transcript
Back in mid-June of 2025, a shooting war erupted between Iran and Israel, with Israeli military forces launching attacks against multiple Iranian military sites, alongside sites associated with its nuclear program and against individual Iranian military leaders.
Iran responded to these strikes, which left a lot of infrastructural damage and several military leaders assassinated, with large waves of missiles and drones against both Israeli and allied military targets, and soon after, later the same month, both sides agreed on a ceasefire and that was that.
Following that blip of a war, though, Iran’s economy suffered greatly. It already wasn’t doing well, in part due to the crippling sanctions enforced by the US government for years, but also because of persistent mismanagement by Iran’s ruling regime, and the resultant deterioration of local infrastructure, both physical and bureaucratic.
Millions of people fled Iranian urban centers during the war with Israel, and while most of them returned when the ceasefire was brokered, the pace of life and other fundaments of these cities never got back up to where they were, before, as there have been fairly consistent blackouts that have kept people from being able to function as normal, and these outages have also kept businesses from getting back on their feet. That, in turn, has resulted in closures and firings and an overall reduction in economic activity.
The general hamhandedness of the government has amplified these issues, and the countless other issues of trying to exist within a country that is being so persistently targeted—both in the sense of those crushing sanctions from the US, but also in the sense of being periodically struck by Israel—has dramatically increased uncertainty throughout Iran these past several years.
Even before that brief war, Iran was already on the backfoot, having suffered the loss of their local proxies, including the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in the Gaza Strip—all of which have been either severely weakened by Israel in recent years, or functionally wiped out—and that in turn has more directly exposed them to meddling and attacks from their key opposition, which includes the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.
That new vulnerability has put the Iranian government on high-alert, and the compounding effects of all that infrastructural damage, mismanagement, and the need to reallocate more resources to defense has left the country suffering very high levels of inflation, a severely devalued currency, regular blackouts, mass unemployment, a water shortage, and long-time repression from a government that is in many ways more paranoid and flailing than in any time in recent memory.
What I’d like to talk about today is a recent wave of protests across Iran and why the US government is apparently considering taking action to support protestors against the Iranian government.
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Iran has long suffered all sorts of issues, including regular efforts by ethnic secessionists to pull it apart into pieces they periodically occupy and want to govern, themselves, and concerns from citizens that the government spends a whole lot of their time and the nation’s resources enriching themselves, oppressing the citizenry, funding what seems to be a pointless nuclear program, and prioritizing their offensive efforts against Israel and their other regional enemies, often by arming and funding those aforementioned, now somewhat defunct proxy militias and militaries.
On top of all that, as of October 2025, inflation in Iran had surged to 48.6% and the Iranian currency, the rial, dropped in value to 1.45 million per dollar. The government tried to artificially boost the value of the rial to 1.38 million per dollar in early January of 2026, but it dropped further, to 1.5 million per dollar a few days later, hitting a record low. This combined with that wild inflation rate, made the basic fundamentals of life, food, electricity, and so on, unaffordable, even for those who still had jobs, which was an ever-shrinking portion of the population.
For context, the drop of the rial to a value of 1.38 million per dollar, the boosted value, represented a loss of about 40% of the rial’s value since June of 2025, just before that war with Israel, which is a staggering loss, as that means folk’s life savings lost that much in about half a year.
When currency values and inflation hit that level of volatility, doing business becomes difficult. It often makes more sense to close up shop than to try to keep the doors open, because you don’t know if the price you charge for your product or service will make you a profit or not: there’s a chance you’ll sell things at a loss, because the value of the money you receive and the cost of goods you require, both to survive and to keep your business functioning, will change before the day ends, or before the sale can be completed.
Iran’s economic crisis has further exploded in the past few weeks, then, because all those issues have compounded and spiraled to the point that simply selling things and buying things have become too risky for many people and entities, and that means folks are having even more trouble getting food and keeping the lights on than before; which becomes a real survival issue, on top of the regular crackdowns and abuses by the government that they’ve suffered in various ways for decades.
In 2022, those abuses and limits on personal rights led to large protests that were catalyzed by the death of a 22-year-old woman named Mahsa Amini, who was in police custody for allegedly wearing her hijab improperly. Those 2022 protests were historically large—the biggest in the country, by some estimates at least, since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
On December 28 2025, a group of shopkeepers in Iran’s capital city, Tehran, went on strike, closing their shops in protest against what’s been happening with Iran’s economy; again, it’s basically impossible to safely do business in a country with that much inflation and currency devaluation happening.
Other shopkeepers followed suit, and large protests formed around these closed shops. Those protests flooded social media platforms in short order, protestors shouting slogans that indicated they were pissed off about all the economic mismanagement in the country, and then eventually that led to anti-government slogans being shouted, as well.
Things remained peaceful at these protests, at first, and they expanded across the country within the next few days, shops closing and people filling the streets.
By the fourth day, police had started to use live ammunition and tear gas against protestors, some of the protestors were killed, and things spiraled from there.
By December 31, the government ordered a total, nationwide business shutdown, to try to get ahead of these protests, which again tended to revolve around the shutdown of businesses in protest—the government said they were making this call because of cold weather, but the writing was kind of on the wall at this point that they were scrambling to make it look like businesses were shutting down because they said so, not in protest of the government.
The government also announced that they would start cracking down on protestors, hard, and on the first day of 2026, things escalated further, police using even more force against those who gathered, which of course led to more protests in more places, more angry slogans being shouted, and more protestor deaths at the hands of government forces.
Protests had spread to all 31 Iranian provinces by early January of 2026, and at this point there were only 17 confirmed deaths.
US President Donald Trump got involved around this time, maybe feeling confident following the successful nighttime grab of Venezuelan President Maduro; whatever the case, he warned the Iranian government not to shoot protestors, or the US government might have to get involved, coming to the protestors’ rescue.
Iran’s government responded by saying the rioters must be put in their place, suppressing the funerals of protestors, and muffling local internet service, slowing down access speeds and increasing the number of outages by about a third. They threatened to execute hundreds of protestors by hanging, then said they wouldn’t. Trump declared this to be a personal victory, though the Iranian government has used his insinuation of himself into the matter to position the fight as Iran against the US, the protestors backed by their great enemy, which has shown itself to be responsible for these protests.
The government then started forcing captured protestors to make confessions on video, which only seemed to further anger the non-arrested protestors, and some protestors began to fight back, in one case setting a police officer on fire, and in other cases local militia groups defended protestors against police, leading to several deaths.
Iran’s government shut down more communication services in an attempt to regain control, in some cities taking down the internet completely, though some information, photos and videos of police abuses of protestors still made it out into the wider world using satellite services like Starlink, and by the 9th of January, protests reached a scale that rivaled and maybe surpassed those seen during the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and protestors began to set fire to buildings associated with the Islamic Republic, the government, and directly clashing with security forces in some cases.
Hundreds of people were reportedly killed per day from that point forward, and thousands were rushed to hospitals, overwhelming local doctors.
Thousands of people were also violently killed by police, under cover of the now complete internet blackout, and on January 10th, it was estimated that around 2,000 protestors had been killed in the past two days, alone, while other estimates from inside and outside Iran range from 12,000 to 20,000 protestors killed by the government. The most reliable source I could find, as of last weekend, indicated that the true number of dead is something like 3,300 people, at minimum.
In the past week or so, the Iranian government has apparently figured out how to jam Starlink internet signals, making it even more difficult for protestors to share what’s happening in the country, and President Trump posted on his social network, Truth Social, telling Iranian citizens that they should overthrow the government and that help is on the way.
The Iranian government has arrested tens of thousands of people, has tanks patrolling their towns and cities, and seems to have successfully quashed protests for the time being; no protests at all were reported across the country as of mid-January, and so many people were killed and injured that hospitals and other institutions are still overwhelmed, trying to work through their backlog; much of the country is in mourning.
Government forces are reportedly going door to door to arrest people who were spotted in CCTV and social media footage participating in protests, and they’ve set up checkpoints to stop people, look through their phones, and arrest them if any photos or videos are found that indicate they were at protests, deleting that digital evidence in the process.
This remains a fast-moving story and there’s a chance something significant, like the US striking Iranian government targets, or renewed, more focused protests will arise in the coming days and weeks.
Some analysts have argued that it’s kind of a no-brainer for the Trump administration to hit the Iranian government while it’s strained in this way, because it’s a long-time enemy of the US and its allies that’s currently weak, and doing so would reinforce the narrative, sparked with the capture of Maduro, that Trump’s administration is anti-tyrant; which is questionable by most measures, but again, this is a narrative, not necessarily reality. And narratives are powerful, especially going into an election year.
It’s also possible that, because economic conditions in Iran haven’t changed, that this is just the beginning of something bigger; protestors and militias taking a moment to regain their footing and consider what they might do to have more of an impact when they start back up again.
Show Notes
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601130145
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/31/we-want-the-mullahs-gone-economic-crisis-sparks-biggest-protests-in-iran-since-2022
https://www.nytimes.com/article/iran-protests-inflation-currency.html
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/06/25/mapping-the-protests-in-iran-2/
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/10/us/politics/trump-iran-strikes.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/10/world/middleeast/iran-protests-death-toll.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iranian-mp-warns-greater-unrest-urging-government-address-grievances-2026-01-13/
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-hunting-down-starlink-users-to-stop-protest-videos-from-going-global-d8b49602
https://archive.is/20260114175227/https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/bank-collapse-iran-protests-83f6b681
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-protest-death-toll-over-12000-feared-higher-video-bodies-at-morgue/
https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/did-irans-currency-collapse-rial-plummets-to-000-against-euro-while-inflation-protests-escalate-across-the-country-164403/
https://archive.is/20260116034429/https://www.ft.com/content/5d848323-84a9-4512-abd2-dd09e0a786a3
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2jek15m8no
https://theconversation.com/the-use-of-military-force-in-iran-could-backfire-for-washington-273264
https://archive.is/20260114182636/https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/01/14/iran-regime-protest-trump-strike/
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/16/world/middleeast/iran-protests-deadly-crackdown.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/17/world/middleeast/iran-ayatollah-khamenei.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests
https://www.en-hrana.org/day-thirteen-of-the-protests-nighttime-demonstrations-continue-amid-internet-shutdown/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iran_internal_crisis
https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-trump-khamenei-fc11b1082fb75fca02205f668c822751
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