Wall Street's freaky season, trading updates and China's disappointing data
Aug 21, 2023
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Discussion on Wall Street's freaky season and China's disappointing economic data. Analysis of key resistance on 10 year U.S. Treasury yield. Insights on market timing, trading updates, and portfolio offense and defense.
Wall Street is experiencing increased activity and volatility in August, defying the traditional lull associated with this month.
The uncertainty surrounding China's economic data and changing relations with the US could have global commerce and stock market implications.
Deep dives
Market Activity in August: Unusual Summer Trends
The podcast hosts discuss the recent market activity in August and how it defies the traditional lull that used to be associated with this month. Wall Street is showing signs of increased activity and volatility, which is uncommon for this time of year. They mention Jackson Hole as a potential factor contributing to the market's current behavior. Although there is news and movement, the hosts note that trading can still be slow and uneventful during certain times of the day.
Impact of China's Economic Data on the Market
The podcast touches on the impact of recent disappointing economic data from China. Issues such as a surprise rate cut and missed expectations in industrial production and retail sales are cited. The hosts discuss the uncertainty surrounding China, particularly due to the difficulty in discerning accurate numbers and news. They also raise the question of changing relations between China and the US, suggesting that the current geopolitical landscape could affect global commerce, which would inevitably impact the stock market.
Implications of Bond Market Trends and Inflation
The podcast delves into the implications of bond market trends and inflation on the market. The hosts mention key indicators such as interest rates, oil prices, the dollar, gold, and overall market levels. They note that these indicators are signaling mixed messages, with rates, oil prices, and the dollar rising, while gold is declining. They also mention the possibility of a soft landing and a potential rate cut. However, they emphasize the importance of monitoring the macroeconomic backdrop and listening to the bond market, suggesting that inflation may not be as under control as economic numbers suggest. They caution that any negative news could potentially lead to market sell-offs.
Rob Isbitts and Matthew Tuttle discuss China's disappointing economic data (3:50), and a key level in long-term resistance on 10 year U.S. Treasury yield (8:20). Market timing (24:30) trading updates, portfolio offense and defense (30:00).
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