The Contrarian Investor Podcast Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs: Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust
Mar 11, 2025
Scott Colbert, a chief economist at Commerce Trust, delves into the economy's resilience despite tariffs. He argues that while these tariffs may reduce growth and inflate prices temporarily, they won't cause a recession. Colbert shares insights on the aging workforce and its effects on labor markets, suggesting a stable outlook for the economic cycle over the next four years. He also highlights the renewed appeal of fixed income investments and the potential challenges facing growth stocks in the current landscape.
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Economy and Tariffs
- The economy can withstand tariffs, leading to slower, short-term growth and higher inflation.
- These effects are temporary and the economic cycle remains mid-cycle.
Tariff Objectives
- Tariffs aim to raise revenue, renegotiate trade, and address economic security concerns, particularly with China.
- Tariffs on China will likely persist, while those on allies are more flexible.
Impact on US Imports
- The US's top three trading partners, China, Mexico, and Canada, each contribute roughly 2% to US GDP.
- Tariffs led to US imports from China being halved over the last decade, demonstrating their impact.