Kiril Sokoloff (13D Research) - An Insidious Environment

Kiril Sokoloff founded 13D Research in 1983 and is a leading global investment strategist who has presciently called a number of major paradigm shifts over the last 40 years.  We discuss Kiril’s career, why the current investment backdrop is so challenging and how the geopolitical landscape is evolving.

Show notes:

[01:23] Kiril talks about the start of his career
[04:18] Getting the big picture right
[07:48] The impact of algorithmic trading and passive investing on price discovery 
[09:57] Timing is everything
[10:48] Risk control and being willing to change your mind
[12:39] The common traits of successful investors
[14:44] Reading widely to connect the dots
[15:41] Why the investment environment is so challenging
[19:18] The lag effect giving the illusion that everything’s fine
[21:14] The role gold plays in a portfolio
[24:19] The cycle of wealth distribution
[25:54] Cycles  go from one extreme to the other
[26:45] Focusing on cash flow and low free cash flow multiples
[28:23] Supply and demand imbalances in the energy and mining industries
[30:47] Resource nationalism
[32:21] A changing market regime
[33:35] Drivers of higher inflation
[37:33] Geopolitics and the shift to a multipolar world
[40:21] Investing in China
[42:15] Accepting fate whilst being flexible and patient