Claudia Sahm: The Wild Birth of the Sahm Rule (and How It Broke)

In this episode of The Blunt Dollar, I sit down with Claudia Sahm, a renowned economist, recession expert, and creator of the famous Sahm Rule, one of the most closely watched early indicators of U.S. recessions. 

Claudia spent over a decade at the Federal Reserve, later advised the White House, and now serves as Chief Economist at New Century Advisors. We explore her fascinating career path, the story behind the Sahm Rule, and why good economic policy must blend rigorous data with empathy and an eye for dignity.

Here’s what we cover:

📈 Claudia’s transition from the Fed and the White House to building her own voice and ultimately joining the investment world.

💡 The surprising backstory of how the Sahm Rule came to life, and why it triggered in 2024 but Claudia herself didn’t call a recession.

🛠️ Why automatic stabilisers like stimulus checks should be on “autopilot” to avoid messy congressional fights during downturns.

🧭 The underrated power of storytelling and empathy in economic analysis, and how it helps build trust and credibility.

🤝 Claudia’s best advice for young economists looking to be bold, ethical, and truly impactful in their careers.

If you like deep dives on macroeconomics, how policy shapes real lives, and candid stories from inside the Fed, this one’s for you.

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Enjoy the episode!

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Listeners should consult a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.