Former professor Lyle Goldstein and Taiwanese expert Syaru Shirley Lin discuss the possibility of US-China war over Taiwan, including historical context, military strategies, global ramifications, Taiwan-China relations, and the imperative of quality diplomacy to prevent conflict.
Taiwan's semiconductor industry complicates US-China relations.
Historical tensions and China's desire for unification drive conflict risks over Taiwan.
Deep dives
US-China Relations and Taiwan's Strategic Importance
Tensions between the US and China are exemplified by the situation in Taiwan. The island has historically been a focal point of contention between the two powers, with doubts on whether past diplomatic successes could be replicated today. President Biden's commitment to defending Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression underscores its strategic significance. Taiwan's role as the global leader in semiconductor production adds complexity to the US-China dynamic.
Historical Perspective on Taiwan-China Relations
The historical context of Taiwan's sovereignty is rooted in China's claim to the island as part of its territory. Long-standing tensions date back to China's desire to reunify Taiwan, seen as rectifying past injustices by addressing Japanese aggression on the island. Xi Jinping's insistence on unification reflects China's national ethos and historical grievances.
Military Dynamics and Potential Scenarios
The military dynamics surrounding Taiwan involve intricate strategies and potential risks. China's military buildup and strategic calculations heighten the possibility of conflict. US military presence and Taiwan's defense preparedness raise concerns about the implications of an armed confrontation for both sides.
Economic Interdependence and Geopolitical Leverage
The economic interdependence between Taiwan and China underscores the complexity of the situation. China's leverage through economic means, such as blockades or trade restrictions, poses a challenge to Taiwan's autonomy. The intertwined economic interests contribute to the intricate geopolitical dance between the two entities.
Will the United States and China go to war over an island of 24 million people nearly 6,500 miles from California? Why is this a possibility? What is the history and significance of Taiwan to America and China?
Guest: Lyle Goldstein, former professor US Naval College, now at Brown University. Taiwanese expert, Syaru Shirley Lin, founder of the think tank, Capri.
An essay by Lyle Goldstein on how Taiwan features in US foreign policy. In the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.