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Investing Experts
Avi Gilburt on bond market crash signals; does market get 1 more high?
Dec 7, 2023
Financial analyst Avi Gilburt analyzes the start of a major bear market and wonders if the market will reach a higher high. They discuss pullbacks, retail investor advice, and portfolio positioning. The bond market and TLT are analyzed, predicting a rally into 2024 and potential crash. Identifying downside risks and the impending bank crisis are emphasized. Caution in the market, the next few weeks, and seeking professional advice are highlighted.
29:17
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Quick takeaways
- The speaker is anticipating a major bear market and is waiting to see if the market reaches a higher high, with the answer expected to come from the market structure.
- Retail investors should consider their risk appetite and investment horizon when deciding how to position their portfolios, with long-term investors potentially raising cash or becoming more aggressive depending on their goals.
Deep dives
Assessing the Market and the Potential Bear Market
The speaker discusses their assessment of the market and the possibility of a major bear market. They have been anticipating a bear market for about a decade and are now waiting to see if the market reaches a higher high over 4800 or if it has already peaked. The answer is expected to come from the market structure, particularly the rally and subsequent decline from the 4100 region. If the market can hold above 4500 and rally above 4607.07, it would invalidate the bearish potential and indicate a buying opportunity. However, if it breaks below 4500 and declines impulsively, it could signal a market crash.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode