Examines the lack of serious challengers to Trump in the Republican primary and the absence of primary challengers to Biden in the Democratic party. Explores the rigidity and calcification of American politics, the concerns about Biden's electability in 2024, and the importance of marginal voters in the 2020 election. Analyzes Trump's moderation on abortion and discusses government shutdowns and political divisions. Wraps up with a discussion of using profanity to increase class enrollment.
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Quick takeaways
The Republican primary lacks alternative candidates to Trump, while Biden faces no serious primary challengers.
The state of American politics is characterized by rigidity, with similarities within each party and significant differences between the parties, along with a rise in identity-inflected issues.
The Trump campaign in 2016 introduced a shift in focus to issues centered around race, gender, ethnicity, and religion, contributing to the current political climate.
Deep dives
The electoral politics landscape is frozen in place
The Republican primary lacks alternative candidates to Trump, while Biden faces no serious primary challengers.
Electoral politics is marked by calcification and parity
The state of American politics is characterized by rigidity, with similarities within each party and significant differences between the parties, along with a rise in identity-inflected issues.
The importance and impact of identity-inflected issues
The Trump campaign in 2016 introduced a shift in focus to issues centered around race, gender, ethnicity, and religion, contributing to the current political climate.
The challenges in changing the political landscape
Attempts to shift the focus from identity-inflected issues to other topics or to neutralize certain issues face resistance due to the established polarization and the perceived high stakes in every election.
Concerns about Biden's electability in 2024
There are evidence-based worries among Democrats that the high stakes nature of the elections and the calculated balance between the parties may lead to closely contested results, sparking a focus on shoring up the support of marginal voters.
We are at an awkward moment in electoral politics. When it comes to the Republican primary, while there are plenty of alternatives to former President Donald Trump, none of them have gained serious traction. When it comes to Democrats, despite consternation about President Biden’s age and electability, he has no serious primary challengers.
More than a year out from the presidential election, it seems like the writing is on the wall, that electoral politics are frozen in place, and few people are happy about it. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with American politics professor Lynn Vavreck to help make sense of how we got here.