Does the government’s plan to cut immigration add up?
Dec 7, 2023
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David Smith, Economics Editor of The Sunday Times, discusses the UK government's plan to cut immigration and its implications on the economy, including the increase in net migration, the impact on the job market, and the contributions of migration to the economy.
The UK government's plan to reduce immigration may not effectively address labor shortages and could have short-term economic consequences.
Restricting migration could lead to difficulties in filling job vacancies, exacerbating the issue of economic inactivity and hindering long-term economic growth.
Deep dives
Record-breaking Net Migration In the UK
The latest immigration figures for the UK revealed a record-breaking net migration of nearly 750,000 people in 2022, surpassing the previous high of 300,000. The data shows a significant shift in migration patterns, with net emigration of EU citizens post-Brexit and a large influx of non-EU citizens, particularly from India and Nigeria. The UK government aims to curb migration by implementing stricter rules, including raising the salary threshold for work visas and limiting dependence for workers and students. However, critics argue that these measures may not address the labor shortages and could have short-term economic implications.
The Challenge of Matching Workforce with Job Vacancies
While the UK government seeks to reduce migration, there are concerns about the ability to fill the job vacancies left by migrant workers. The economically inactive segment in the UK, consisting of people not working and not available for work, has seen a rise, with factors such as ill health and lack of training contributing to the issue. Although the government hopes to encourage more UK-born individuals to enter the workforce, it may not directly match the specific jobs that migrants typically filled, such as in the care sector and agriculture. Balancing the long-term goal of reducing economic inactivity with short-term labor demands poses significant challenges for policymakers.
Economic Impact of Migration Policies
The government's plan to clamp down on migration raises concerns about its potential short-term impact on the economy. With a tighter job market, wages in certain sectors may rise, making it harder to control inflation. Additionally, cutting off the supply of migrant workers could create difficulties in sustaining economic growth, as evidenced by the nearly one million job vacancies in the UK. Economic forecasts highlight the positive contribution of migration to long-term economic growth, and abrupt shifts in migration policies may hinder the economy's recovery and future prospects.
Net migration to the UK hit a record high in 2022 – 745,000 more people arrived in the country than emigrated. After 13 years of promising to cut immigration, the government introduced yet another plan this week to reduce numbers. We look at what it would mean for the economy.
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Guest: David Smith, Economics Editor, The Sunday Times.