Iran's Perception of Military Balance

Iran has recently developed ballistic missiles and drones, leading its leadership to believe they have achieved a strategic military balance with Israel. This perception of newfound capabilities has prompted Tehran to act with increased confidence, believing they can circumvent previous conventional weaknesses. The context of the Iran-Iraq War continues to shape their thinking; the memory of being attacked without able defense instills a national urgency to maintain deterrence. This historical trauma influences Iranian leadership, fostering a narrative that they are encircled by hostile forces, which in turn justifies aggressive postures against perceived threats.