The Milk Road Show Is the 2025 Crypto Bull Run Over? Expert Analysis w/ Michael Howell
Jan 13, 2025
Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital and expert in credit and liquidity, dives into the turbulent waters of macroeconomics. He analyzes the implications of U.S. fiscal policy and the volatile Chinese bond market on the crypto landscape. The conversation highlights how central banks' liquidity maneuvers could affect investments as well as the looming debt maturity wall. Howell emphasizes the tight correlation between Bitcoin prices and global liquidity, urging a cautious approach to navigating the uncertain financial terrain.
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2025 Crypto Pullback
- The 2025 crypto market pullback is due to macroeconomic factors like US fiscal policy and China's bond market.
- A looming debt maturity wall from COVID-era low-interest debt adds to the uncertainty.
Hidden Liquidity Injection
- The Federal Reserve has been injecting liquidity into markets despite claiming quantitative tightening (QT).
- This liquidity injection, coupled with short-term debt issuance by the Treasury, fueled the 2024 market rally.
Debt-to-Liquidity
- Global debt levels necessitate central bank intervention through quantitative easing (QE).
- The critical metric is the debt-to-liquidity ratio, not debt-to-GDP, as debt requires refinancing.