The Energy Transition Show with Chris Nelder

[Episode #267] – Japan: Petrostate or Electrostate?

Jan 14, 2026

Nobuo Tanaka, former Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, shares his insights on Japan's critical energy dilemma. He discusses how Japan, heavily reliant on energy imports, navigates between remaining a petrostate or embracing an electrostate future. Tanaka delves into the evolution of energy security, the impact of the U.S. shale revolution, and the challenges Japan faces post-Fukushima, including public distrust in nuclear power. This conversation highlights Japan's unique position in the global energy transition landscape.

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INSIGHT

Nuclear Was Japan’s Energy Security Bet

Japan historically chose nuclear power because it minimized fuel imports and provided round-the-clock, carbon-free electricity.
The government effectively bet the country's energy security on nuclear plants before 2011.

INSIGHT

From Oil Security To Comprehensive Energy Security

Nobuo Tanaka reframed energy security from oil-only to a comprehensive concept including electricity and gas.
He argued policy must prepare systems for diverse disruptions, not just petroleum shocks.

INSIGHT

Backcasting Climate Targets Into Policy

Tanaka pushed IEA to include climate mitigation in its remit and scenario planning like 450 ppm.
He said governments must backcast from climate targets to shape present energy policy.

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Depending on where you live, the energy transition might feel like it’s stalling or accelerating faster than ever. Countries are sorting themselves into two camps: petrostates seeking to stay on the fossil fuel path, and electrostates racing toward renewables, batteries, EVs, and other “electrotech.” Under Trump, the US is joining Russia and Saudi Arabia in the petrostate camp, while China is leading much of the rest of the world in the opposite direction by exporting electrotech to the developing world as well as developed countries that lack domestic fossil fuel resources.

But as countries follow different paths through the energy transition, where does that leave Japan? Importing 100% of its oil and gas means it ranks among the world’s most energy-vulnerable nations. After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant disaster in 2011, Japan has lost more than a decade to inaction, stuck between a public that no longer trusts nuclear power and a political establishment reluctant to abandon enormous sunk costs in nuclear capacity. Now Japan has reached a crossroads. It can side with the petrostates, go with the electrostates, or try to straddle the line between them.

To explore Japan’s options, Chris interviewed Nobuo Tanaka, former Executive Director of the International Energy Agency from 2007 to 2011. Tanaka now chairs the steering committee of Japan’s Innovation for Cool Earth Forum and advises Japanese and international companies on energy strategy.

In this conversation, we’ll hear Tanaka’s bold proposal for Japan, Korea, and China to set aside their historical conflicts and form an electrostate alliance, much as France and Germany did after World War II when they created the European Coal and Steel Community. Tanaka also makes the case for a new generation of nuclear technology as Japan’s path forward, a view on which he and Chris differ, though they agree on the stakes. And, based on his long experience in international geopolitical forums, Tanaka explains how US policy is pushing Europe and much of the rest of the world closer to China.