Marketplace All-in-One Finally, clues about the job market
Nov 20, 2025
Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at KPMG, dives into the latest labor-market insights. She discusses the surprising addition of 119,000 jobs coupled with a rising unemployment rate, shedding light on job security issues. Swonk also evaluates how the Federal Reserve's decisions may be impacted by this delayed data, predicting they will likely maintain steady rates in December. The conversation delves into consumer behavior, revealing that despite declining sentiment, spending remains robust, and highlights a concerning 17% drop in international student enrollments.
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September Jobs Show Mixed Signals
- The September jobs report showed 119,000 jobs gained but included downward revisions that imply an August loss.
- The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% and labor-force participation shifts complicate the picture.
Participation Rose Without Corresponding Hiring
- Participation rose but new participants, like college grads and teens, weren't finding jobs quickly.
- Seasonal factors (students returning to school) can distort one-month swings in participation.
Fed Likely To Hold Rates Until Data Returns
- The Fed will lack timely data after the shutdown and is unlikely to cut rates in December.
- Officials prefer to wait for clearer data before changing policy.