Currents Ep331: Cost of capital: 2026 outlook
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Jan 22, 2026 
Rubiao Song, Managing Director at J.P. Morgan, and Ralph Cho, Co-CEO of Apterra Infrastructure Capital, dive into the evolving landscape of tax equity and project financing. They share insights on the expected surge in tax equity and credit volumes for 2025, highlighting the emerging trends in solar-plus-storage. The conversation also covers the impact of new tax credits on financing structures, residential solar risks, and innovative developments in the tax equity market, while projecting a busy pipeline for 2026 amidst ongoing policy challenges.
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Tax Equity And Credit Sales Scale To $45–50B
- The combined tax equity and tax credit transfer market for traditional renewables and other credit-generating technologies was roughly $45–50 billion in 2025.
- That represented about a 10% increase over 2024 driven by wind, solar and growing direct credit transfers.
Solar Dominates New Build Mix
- Development market skewed roughly one-third wind and two-thirds solar plus storage by late 2025.
- The tax-driven financing market broadly reflects that split with solar continuing to grow its share.
Hybrid Structures Multiply Market Variants
- Hybrid tax equity structures and credit transfer features have proliferated, fragmenting the market and complicating volume tracking.
- Traditional 'vanilla' tax equity now makes up a smaller slice of deals than it did in 2024.