Podcast Archives - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies OIES Podcast – Navigating Oil Narratives
Nov 26, 2025
In this insightful discussion, Paul Horsnell, an independent energy consultant and expert in oil markets, shares key findings from the OIES Oil Day. He emphasizes resilient global oil demand and the unexpected growth in Africa. Paul explores China's strategic stockpiling and the nuances of crude on water versus land stock. He explains OPEC+'s decision to unwind voluntary cuts and the emerging role of hedge funds in the market. Also discussed are projections for U.S. shale's performance and pivotal factors shaping the future oil landscape.
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Macro Shift From Crash To Subpar Growth
- The macro outlook shifted from extreme downside fears to a base case of subdued but steady growth.
- Paul Horsnell thinks demand growth may exceed consensus and reach above 1 mb/d for 2025 and 2026.
Unexpected Demand Strength In Africa
- Africa surprised with stronger-than-expected oil demand, despite South Africa's weakness.
- Jet fuel and NGLs have driven much of 2024 demand growth, lifting overall figures.
Crude-On-Water Is Mostly Transit, Not Glut
- 'Oil on water' often reflects oil in transit, not true floating storage or surplus.
- Horsnell warns that transit increases usually mirror higher production, changed trade routes, or sanctions—not hidden glut.