Israel Is Banking on U.S. Support for a Wider War Against the Axis of Resistance
Jan 10, 2024
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"Intercepted" hosts Amal Saad and Karim Makdisi discuss Israel's war on Gaza and the potential for a wider conflict. They explore Israel's military operations in Lebanon, Hezbollah's role in the resistance axis, and Iran's relationships with Hamas and Hezbollah. They also analyze the US-Israel relationship, Biden's stance on the wars in Palestine and Lebanon, and the implications of a broader war involving the US and Iran. The hosts critique Israel's disregard for international law and the dire situation in Gaza. The conversation highlights concerns about Israeli incentives to provoke Hezbollah and escalate the conflict.
Israel's war against Gaza could potentially escalate into a wider conflict targeting Iran and its allies.
Hezbollah poses a substantial threat to Israel due to its advanced military capabilities and potential to strike deep into Israeli territory.
Hezbollah is an autonomous armed group in Lebanon, with a political relationship with the state as a resistance movement against Israeli occupation.
Deep dives
Israel's war against Gaza may expand to a broader conflict
Israel's war against Gaza is seen as potentially expanding into a wider conflict to target Iran and its allies. Israel has been conducting military strikes in Gaza and Lebanon, and there are concerns that the ultimate objective is to involve the United States in an open war against Iran. The axis of resistance, which includes Houthis in Yemen, Islamic resistance in Iraq, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas, is becoming bolder and more defiant towards Israel and the United States. Israeli officials have also talked openly about the possibility of a broader war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The situation is escalating day by day, and there are worries about the potential involvement of the United States as a belligerent in this conflict.
Israel's military capabilities and potential conflict with Hezbollah
Hezbollah is viewed as the most powerful non-state armed force in the world, with advanced military capabilities and a formidable resistance army. Israel's military campaign against Hamas in Gaza has shown the difficulties in achieving strategic objectives, and Hamas is seen as much less advanced than Hezbollah. A full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah would present a different level of challenge, as Hezbollah has a larger and more sophisticated arsenal, including precision-guided missiles. While Israel could inflict significant damage on Lebanon, Hezbollah's military capabilities and potential to strike deep into Israeli territory pose a major threat. The US support for Israel is seen as crucial, and there are concerns about the possibility of the US getting dragged into a wider conflict, especially considering its military assets in the region.
Lebanon's relationship with Hezbollah and prospects for resolution
Hezbollah is viewed as an autonomous armed group in Lebanon and is not considered a proxy of Iran. Hezbollah emerged as a resistance movement against Israeli occupation and has been instrumental in expelling Israeli forces from Lebanon. Its military capabilities have grown significantly, making it a powerful force. While Lebanon's government does not have control over Hezbollah's military activities, there is a political relationship where the state has backed Hezbollah as a resistance movement. The current situation in Gaza and Lebanon has highlighted the need for a ceasefire in Gaza and a political and diplomatic resolution to the conflicts. There have been discussions about implementing UN Security Council resolution 1701, which calls for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territories and the cessation of Israeli violations. The prospect of resolving the conflicts and implementing such resolutions is uncertain, and the situation remains tense.
Amal Sad and Karim Makdisi's perspectives on Hezbollah's offensive approach
Amal Sad and Karim Makdisi discuss Hezbollah's offensive strategy and its implications in the region. They highlight that Hezbollah's recent escalation marks the first time it has initiated a war with Israel, indicating its confidence in its military capabilities. They also emphasize the role of other resistance groups and Iran's support in a potential great war, highlighting the extensive destabilization it could cause. They caution against Israel and the US assuming that Hezbollah has an aversion to war, as it remains prepared and ready to wage a war.
Israel's motives and potential consequences of a regional war
The podcast examines Israel's motives for potentially escalating the conflict and the broader consequences of a regional war. It explores the Israeli government's desire to draw the US into a wider war, with specific focus on the potential expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank amidst such a conflict. The guests highlight the destructive nature of the Dahiya doctrine, discussed in previous invasions of Lebanon, and the likelihood of it being used again to target civilian areas. They express concern about the US's support for Israel's genocidal war and the impact on the region's perception of American power.
As Israel’s war of annihilation in Gaza enters its fourth month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears intent on pulling the U.S. deeper into a wider regional war. In recent weeks, Israel has intensified its military operations inside Lebanon, killing several mid-level Hezbollah commanders in what appear to be targeted assassination strikes. Israel is also widely believed to have been responsible for the January 2 drone strike in a Beirut suburb that killed a senior Hamas official, Saleh al-Arouri. Hezbollah, a well-armed and organized Lebanese resistance movement with close links to Iran and a central member in the axis of resistance, has regularly fired rockets into northern Israel and has conducted drone strikes of its own, including against a strategic Israeli military facility.
This week’s guests on Intercepted are Amal Saad, a lecturer in politics at Cardiff University and a scholar of Hezbollah, and Karim Makdisi, an associate professor of international politics at the American University of Beirut and co-host of the Makdisi Street podcast. They join Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain for an in-depth discussion on whether Israel's war on Gaza will spark what many in the region believe is an inevitable “great war” against Israel. They also discuss the role of Iran and its relationships with Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as how Joe Biden compares to past presidents on the wars in Palestine and Lebanon.
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