Prof G Markets The Biggest Risks and Opportunities in Latin America — ft. Monica de Bolle
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Jul 18, 2025 
Monica de Bolle, a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, delves into Latin America's economic landscape, focusing on Brazil. She discusses how U.S. tariffs could reshape Brazil's trade relations, with China emerging as a key partner. The conversation highlights Brazil’s economic tailwinds versus Argentina's struggles with inflation. Monica also reflects on the rise of minimal state ideologies and the lessons learned from Brazil's political history as the region prepares for upcoming elections.
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Tariffs on Brazil Lack Rationale
- Brazil's political turmoil is largely internal and unrelated to U.S. economic interests.
- The proposed 50% tariffs on Brazil are unexpected and lack a clear economic rationale.
Brazil Has U.S. Trade Deficit
- Brazil has a trade deficit with the U.S., making the tariff justification weak.
- The 50% tariff announcement surprised Brazilians and stirred mixed emotional reactions.
Tariffs Strengthen Lula Politically
- The tariff threat has politically rallied support for Lula in Brazil.
- Political tensions and outrage arose due to perceived U.S. interference in Brazil's internal affairs.