Join Vox's Jonathan Guyer, who covers U.S. foreign policy, and Jon B. Alterman, a Middle East expert, as they dissect the urgent calls for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict. They explore the complex dynamics of the hostage situation and the challenges of balancing military objectives with humanitarian needs. The discussion highlights the shifting stance of the U.S. government and the potential for regional escalation involving Iran and Hezbollah, all while advocating for a path toward sustainable peace amidst the chaos.
The Biden administration acknowledges the need for a pause and humanitarian aid, but the release of Israeli hostages remains a significant obstacle to a ceasefire agreement.
The lack of a political horizon and viable governance structure in Gaza creates a challenging environment for long-term stability, making future ceasefires only provide temporary relief.
Deep dives
Calls for Ceasefire and Humanitarian Pause
Protesters, politicians, and influential figures like the Pope and the Queen of Jordan are all pushing for a ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. They are concerned about the high casualties, injuries, and displacement of Palestinians in Gaza, stressing the urgent need for humanitarian aid and a pause in the violence. The Biden administration has shifted its language, acknowledging the necessity of a pause and some form of humanitarian update. However, the issue of the Israeli hostages in Gaza remains a significant obstacle, with Hamas not willing to release them without a ceasefire and Israel demanding their release for any ceasefire agreement.
International Support and Opposition
While a majority of countries in the United Nations General Assembly voted in favor of a humanitarian truce, the United States and Israel, along with a few other nations, opposed it. The United States remains a staunch ally of Israel and has been supporting its right to defend itself. However, the Biden administration is adjusting its rhetoric, recognizing the severity of the situation and the need for a change in approach. This conflict has become increasingly divisive, with calls for a ceasefire being labeled as either pro-Hamas or anti-Semitic, highlighting the complexity of the situation and the range of opinions.
Escalation Risks and the Future
The risk of escalation in this conflict comes from both calculation and miscalculation. While actors like Iran seem content with the status quo and are wary of escalating the conflict, miscalculations, such as command and control issues, unintended civilian casualties, and external interventions, could quickly spiral out of control. The lack of a bigger political process, coupled with the absence of a viable governance structure in Gaza and the weakened Palestinian Authority, creates a challenging environment for long-term stability. In the absence of a political horizon that leads to a Palestinian state and tangible progress in addressing the fundamental grievances of both Israelis and Palestinians, future ceasefires may only offer temporary relief before the cycle of violence resumes.
Protesters, politicians, and the pope are calling for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, but the US and Israeli governments remain opposed. Vox’s Jonathan Guyer and Jon B. Alterman from the Center for Strategic and International Studies explain what happens next.
This episode was produced by Avishay Artsy and Isabel Angell, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, engineered by David Herman, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram.