

Chance vs Skill: Truly Understanding Risks with Dr. Michael Orkin
8 snips Nov 11, 2024
Dr. Michael Orkin, Professor Emeritus of Statistics at California State University, East Bay, discusses the intersection of skill and luck in gaming and decision-making. He shares insights on how chance affects risk management, using examples from lotteries and gambling. The conversation highlights the importance of distinguishing between skill-based and chance-based games, as well as the role of accurate data analysis in workplace safety. With a nod to effective money management, Dr. Orkin offers strategies to navigate the unpredictable world of finance.
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Mega Millions Odds
- Winning the Mega Millions lottery has a 1 in 303 million chance.
- Buying 50 tickets weekly means winning on average every 116,000 years.
Law of Truly Large Numbers
- The "law of truly large numbers" states that with enough opportunities, anything can happen.
- Many lottery tickets sold increase the chance of someone winning, not your individual chance.
Chance vs. Skill in Games
- Games like craps, roulette, and lotteries are pure chance, with winning solely based on luck.
- Other games, like chess or checkers, primarily involve skill.