Risk Management Show

Chance vs Skill: Truly Understanding Risks with Dr. Michael Orkin

8 snips
Nov 11, 2024
Dr. Michael Orkin, Professor Emeritus of Statistics at California State University, East Bay, discusses the intersection of skill and luck in gaming and decision-making. He shares insights on how chance affects risk management, using examples from lotteries and gambling. The conversation highlights the importance of distinguishing between skill-based and chance-based games, as well as the role of accurate data analysis in workplace safety. With a nod to effective money management, Dr. Orkin offers strategies to navigate the unpredictable world of finance.
Ask episode
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
ANECDOTE

Mega Millions Odds

  • Winning the Mega Millions lottery has a 1 in 303 million chance.
  • Buying 50 tickets weekly means winning on average every 116,000 years.
INSIGHT

Law of Truly Large Numbers

  • The "law of truly large numbers" states that with enough opportunities, anything can happen.
  • Many lottery tickets sold increase the chance of someone winning, not your individual chance.
INSIGHT

Chance vs. Skill in Games

  • Games like craps, roulette, and lotteries are pure chance, with winning solely based on luck.
  • Other games, like chess or checkers, primarily involve skill.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Get the app