Ted Seides - The Bet with Buffett – Hedge Funds vs. The S&P 500 - [Invest Like the Best, EP.35]
May 2, 2017
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Ted Seides discusses his famous bet with Buffett, comparing hedge funds to S&P 500. Topics include origins of the bet, nuances, fees, indexing, and asset allocation. They reflect on Berkshire shareholder meetings, valuation impact, market dynamics, and skill in investing. Exploring permanent equity investing and public market portfolio strategies, they compare S&P 500 returns and investor discipline.
The podcast highlights the backstory and outcome of the bet between Ted Seides and Warren Buffett, showcasing Buffett's subtle references and ultimate announcement of results.
The distinct exposures of hedge funds versus the S&P 500 are dissected, emphasizing the challenges in comparing diverse hedge fund exposures to the straightforward market exposure of the S&P 500.
The discussion emphasizes the importance of valuation in investments, focusing on alternative investment strategies, the significance of benchmark selection, and the impact of market conditions on investment outcomes.
Deep dives
Origin of the Bet and Warren Buffett's Handling of Results
The podcast delved into the backstory of the bet between Ted Sides and Warren Buffett, exploring how the bet originated from a series of exchanges between them, including letters and negotiations. Warren Buffett's handling of the bet's results was highlighted, showcasing his subtle references to the bet during annual meetings and the ultimate announcement of the bet's outcome.
Differences in Exposures Between Hedge Funds and S&P 500
The podcast dissected the distinct exposures between hedge funds and the S&P 500, emphasizing how hedge funds have varied exposures, including market exposure, sector diversity, and global market investments. It underscored the challenges and complexities in comparing these diverse exposures to the more straightforward market exposure of the S&P 500.
Valuation and Potential of Alternative Strategies
The discussion expanded on the importance of valuation in investments, particularly focusing on the Schiller PE ratio and its correlation with future market returns. The exploration extended to alternative investment strategies, highlighting the potential benefits and challenges in replicating hedge fund strategies with public market alternatives and the significance of incorporating alternatives based on sophistication and strategic fit.
Performance Measurement and Benchmark Selection
Choosing the right benchmark for evaluating investment performance can be challenging, with factors like risk adjustment and metrics such as the Sharpe ratio coming into play. Despite market unpredictability, the S&P 500 remains a popular benchmark due to its historical success. The podcast host reflects on a past bet involving the S&P 500 and hedge funds, noting the exceptional performance of the S&P 500 over a specific period and the underperformance of hedge funds, highlighting the complexities of measuring success and the impact of market conditions on investment outcomes.
Investment Strategies and Considerations
The discussion delves into the investment landscapes, exploring the shift towards passive investing and the dominance of the S&P 500 post-financial crisis. The challenges faced by active managers amidst increasing flows into passive strategies are outlined. The conversation touches on the importance of understanding real-world investor experiences, including the impact of volatility on trading decisions and the value of discipline in long-term investment success. Additionally, the podcast introduces the concept of permanent equity investments and their potential advantages over traditional fund structures, emphasizing the critical role of strategy adherence in achieving favorable investment outcomes.
This coming weekend is the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in Omaha. That means this week is the perfect opportunity to discuss a topic which will likely figure prominently at Berkshire this weekend: Ted Seides’s famous bet with Buffett. Ted and I discuss the origins of the bet, the nuances beneath the headlines, and whether he’d make the bet again for the next ten years. Along the way, we cover many hot topics like hedge funds, alternatives, fees, and indexing. Please enjoy!