FARSIGHT The Prediction Problem
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Jan 7, 2026 Explore the fascinating challenges of prediction across different domains. Discover how historical mistakes, like Sweden's oak-planting naval blunder, illustrate the pitfalls of long-term planning. Gain insight into the successes and limitations of mid-century economic forecasts and understand the impact of human disruption on climate predictions. Delve into Rumsfeld's concepts of knowns and unknowns and learn the value of scenario building as a practical tool for futurists. This discussion highlights the critical balance between determinism and indeterminacy in understanding the future.
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Swedish Navy's Misplaced Long-Term Plan
- The Swedish navy planted over 300,000 oak trees in 1830 to build wooden ships decades later.
- By harvest time the Industrial Revolution had made wooden warships obsolete, so the plan failed.
Herman Kahn's Partial Forecast Success
- Herman Kahn's The Coming Boom accurately foresaw late-20th-century progress and free-market dominance.
- He missed major developments like global jihadism, pandemic risks, and climate change threats.
Long-Term Predictability In Some Sciences
- Some scientific domains allow far-future predictions because slow processes dominate outcomes.
- Plate tectonics and planetary climate give more reliable forecasts over tens of millions of years.
