The Education of a Value Investor Uncertainty and Enterprise: A conversation with Amar Bhidé
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Apr 4, 2025 Amar Bhidé, Professor of Health Policy at Columbia University, offers a rich dialogue that intertwines finance, policy, and storytelling. He and Guy Spier explore the distinction between risk and uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of narratives in decision-making. Bhidé shares insights on how stories shape human perception and judgment, reflecting on personal experiences and historical influences. The conversation also touches on the role of spirituality in business and the impact of reading habits on knowledge acquisition, making for a thought-provoking journey through ideas.
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Risk vs. Uncertainty Explained
- Risk involves statistical data with confidence in historical predictability, while uncertainty includes incomplete contextual data.
- Much of the real world involves uncertainty where data is incomplete but still essential for projection and decision-making.
Entrepreneurs' Side Dish Stories
- Entrepreneurs often use "side dish" stories to illustrate how they've handled unexpected problems.
- These stories persuade investors of the entrepreneur's imagination and resilience beyond formal business plans.
Use Imagination Over Models
- Avoid forcing one-off problems into statistical models that assume repeatability.
- Always include imagination in business and life decisions grounded in specific circumstances.