OODAcast Episode 75: Lance Mortlock On Scenario Planning to Drive Strategic Decisions
Lance Mortlock is a Senior EY Strategy Partner. He is author of the book Disaster Proof: Scenario Planning for Post Pandemic Future, which explores ways scenario planning can help organizations be more resilient. This is a must-read book for anyone in the Risk Management field. It provides practical advice for strategists, planners, executives and board members on how to ask better questions related to the future, uncertainty, risk and strategy.
In this OODAcast, we ask Lance for insights into what planners can learn from major global events from the last few decades and how scenario planning can help organizations prepare for the big shocks.
Scenario Planning goes beyond simple strategy development and strategic planning. Strategic plans are almost never agile enough for the real world. Scenario planning helps organizations prepare for increasing levels of global uncertainty and complexity. When done well it results in playbooks that can help speed decision-making in the moment.
Scenario Planning originated with the military and has been firmly rooted in military strategy and is continually leveraged at major military staff headquarters to map out potential futures. Students of military history may know of famous scenario planners like Herman Kahn of RAND. Kahn had met with a forward thinking executive at Shell, Pierre Wack, who became the first business leader to adapt scenario planning commercially. Lance discusses how many corporations since then have leveraged scenario planning to anticipate futures and prepare for both increased risk and opportunities.
Lessons we learned from Lance include:
- Expected outcomes from scenario planning
- Repeatable methods to get the most from planning sessions
- How Lance's methods of scenario planning for corporations can be translated to scenario planning for individuals (which makes for some excellent career advice)
- Potential scenarios involving the impact of Covid-19 on the global business environment
- What could be the next big disruptive event
- The uncertainty and complexity and potential risks and opportunities associated with Artificial Intelligence
Disaster Proof: Scenario Planning for a Post-Pandemic Future
Black Swans and Gray RhinosNow more than ever, organizations need to apply rigorous thought to business risks and opportunities. In doing so it is useful to understand the concepts embodied in the terms Black Swan and Gray Rhino. See: Potential Future Opportunities, Risks and Mitigation Strategies in the Age of Continuous Crisis
Cybersecurity Sensemaking: Strategic intelligence to inform your decisionmakingThe OODA leadership and analysts have decades of experience in understanding and mitigating cybersecurity threats and apply this real world practitioner knowledge in our research and reporting. This page on the site is a repository of the best of our actionable research as well as a news stream of our daily reporting on cybersecurity threats and mitigation measures. See: Cybersecurity Sensemaking
Corporate Sensemaking: Establishing an Intelligent EnterpriseOODA’s leadership and analysts have decades of direct experience helping organizations improve their ability to make sense of their current environment and assess the best courses of action for success going forward. This includes helping establish competitive intelligence and corporate intelligence capabilities. Our special series on the Intelligent Enterprise highlights research and reports that can accelerate any organization along their journey to optimized intelligence. See: Corporate Sensemaking
Artificial Intelligence Sensemaking: Take advantage of this mega trend for competitive advantageThis page serves as a dynamic resource for OODA Network members looking for Artificial Intelligence information to drive their decision-making process. This includes a special guide for executives seeking to make the most of AI in their enterprise. See: Artificial Intelligence Sensemaking
COVID-19 Sensemaking: What is next for business and governmentsFrom the very beginning of the pandemic we have focused on research on what may come next and what to do about it today. This section of the site captures the best of our reporting plus daily daily intelligence as well as pointers to reputable information from other sites. See: OODA COVID-19 Sensemaking Page.
Space Sensemaking: What does your business need to know nowA dynamic resource for OODA Network members looking for insights into the current and future developments in Space, including a special executive’s guide to space. See: Space Sensemaking
Quantum Computing SensemakingOODA is one of the few independent research sources with experience in due diligence on quantum computing and quantum security companies and capabilities. Our practitioner’s lens on insights ensures our research is grounded in reality. See: Quantum Computing Sensemaking.
The OODAcast Video and Podcast SeriesIn 2020, we launched the OODAcast video and podcast series designed to provide you with insightful analysis and intelligence to inform your decision making process. We do this through a series of expert interviews and topical videos highlighting global technologies such as cybersecurity, AI, quantum computing along with discussions on global risk and opportunity issues. See: The OODAcast