Johan Norberg: How Sweden Defied Dire COVID Predictions
Sep 22, 2023
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Johan Norberg, Swedish economist and author, discusses Sweden's pandemic policies. Topics include media coverage of Sweden's approach, low COVID-19 death rate, political culture, elder care homes, and debunking myths about Sweden's socialism.
Sweden's decision to forgo lockdowns during the pandemic resulted in a comparable COVID-19 death rate to other European countries and the lowest excess death rate in Europe.
Sweden's approach prioritized voluntary social distancing measures based on government recommendations, maintaining individual freedoms while still controlling the virus.
Sweden's success can be attributed to factors like high social trust, a flexible healthcare system, and a balanced focus on protecting vulnerable populations and maintaining individual freedoms.
Deep dives
Sweden's COVID-19 Response: No Lockdown, Low Death Rate, and Economic Stability
Sweden chose not to implement widespread lockdown measures during the early days of the pandemic, which was met with controversy and criticism. However, Sweden's approach proved successful as its COVID-19 death rate is now comparable to other European countries, and its excess death rate is the lowest in Europe. Sweden also managed to avoid the economic contraction experienced by neighboring countries and prevented significant learning loss by keeping schools open. The Swedish approach prioritized voluntary social distancing measures based on government recommendations rather than imposing strict bans. The success of Sweden's approach can be attributed to factors such as high social trust, flexibility in the healthcare system, and a balanced focus on protecting vulnerable populations and maintaining individual freedoms.
Media Coverage and Perceptions of Sweden's Approach
Sweden faced significant criticism and media portrayal during the pandemic, with many labeling it a cautionary tale and condemning its decision not to lock down. However, media coverage often misconstrued the situation, presenting misleading images and narratives. Sweden's approach was not one of complete normalcy, as social distancing measures were voluntarily observed, and mobility was reduced. Public support for the Swedish policies remained relatively strong, with a majority favoring their approach. The media's focus on Sweden as an outlier overshadowed the importance of calibrating measures, adapting rapidly to the evolving situation, and considering the unintended consequences and mental health impacts of strict lockdowns.
The Lessons from Sweden's Experience
The Swedish experience offers key lessons for pandemic response. First, it is crucial not to panic and implement measures out of haste, but rather carefully consider the cost-benefit analysis and unintended consequences. The importance of trust and social cooperation should not be underestimated, as Sweden's high social trust played a role in voluntary compliance with recommendations. The Swedish healthcare system's ability to adapt, prioritize care, and scale up capacity was facilitated by its decentralized and flexible structure. Sweden's experience challenges the notion that strict government control is necessary and shows the value of individual responsibility and freedom. Overall, the lessons from Sweden emphasize the need for balanced approaches and continuous learning to effectively handle future crises.
Sweden's COVID-19 death rate compared to other countries
Sweden's COVID death rate is in the middle of the pack compared to other European countries and the US. Their excess death rate during the pandemic was the lowest in Europe. This challenges the belief that strict lockdown measures are the only way to control the virus.
Political culture and the role of public health authorities in Sweden
Sweden's approach to managing the pandemic is influenced by its political culture and the independence of its public health authorities. In Sweden, health experts like Anders Tegnell provide guidance based on scientific evidence rather than serving political agendas. This allows for more flexibility and a focus on finding the best course of action rather than adhering to rigid strategies. However, the Swedish model is not without criticism, with some concerns raised about the impact on work ethic and rise in nationalist sentiments.
This is an audio version of The Reason Livestream, which takes place every Thursday at 1 p.m. Eastern on Reason's YouTube channel.
This week, Reason's Zach Weissmueller and Liz Wolfe sat for an in-depth discussion with Johan Norberg about the lessons to draw from Sweden's pandemic policies
The Swedish government's decision to forgo lockdowns as most of Europe, Asia, and North America's political leaders forcibly closed businesses and schools in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic became one of the most controversial policies of 2020.
TheNew York Times in April 2020 designated Sweden "the world's cautionary tale," and President Donald Trump proclaimed that "Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown" as an early wave of COVID deaths hit Sweden harder than its Nordic neighbors.
But to Swedish officials, "it looked like it was other countries that were engaging in a dangerous experiment," writes Cato Institute Senior Fellow Johan Norberg in a policy paper entitled "Sweden during the pandemic: Pariah or paragon?"
Today, Sweden's COVID-19 death rate is not an outlier, and its excess death rate from 2020 to the present is the lowest in Europe.
In a retrospective report on the country's pandemic response, Sweden's public health officials say that they should have more aggressively protected senior citizens and tested and quarantined travelers from COVID hot spots in those early days, but they consider the focus on public health recommendations that people can "follow voluntarily" over coercive lockdowns was "fundamentally correct."
Norberg also points out that Sweden avoided the economic contraction that its neighboring countries suffered, as well as the learning loss experienced in countries that closed schools for months or even years.
