Jonah Goldberg is joined by Ken Pollack, AEI senior fellow and expert on the Middle East, to discuss Iran's shift in foreign policy towards diplomacy and its implications for the United States and other nations. They also explore the issue of hostages in Iran, Turkey's shifting stance in the Middle East, different perspectives on idealism, and military capabilities and strategies in the region.
Iran is shifting its approach in the Middle East and placing a new emphasis on diplomacy while increasing aggression towards the US and Israel.
The ideology of the Iranian regime plays a significant role in shaping its foreign policy decisions, providing legitimacy and control.
Russian diplomats present themselves as defenders of international law but pursue their own interests and compromise moral principles.
Deep dives
Iran's Changing Approach to the Middle East
Iran has traditionally relied on aggressive tactics, such as terrorism and subversion, to further its goals in the Middle East. However, in the past year, there has been a noticeable shift in Iran's approach. They are actively trying to mend relationships with their Arab neighbors, offering economic, diplomatic, and even military inducements. This shift in strategy is notable because it is happening while Iran is increasing its aggression towards Israel and the United States. The Iranians may see an opportunity to split the US and Israel from the Arab states, potentially undermining the budding rapport between them. This change could be part of their larger plan to become the dominant power in the Middle East.
The Role of Ideology in Iran's Foreign Policy
The ideology of the Iranian regime plays a significant role in shaping its foreign policy decisions. While it is unclear how deeply individual leaders believe in the ideology, it is important to them for several reasons. First, it justifies their repressive rule and helps maintain their grip on power. Second, the ideology frames how they perceive their self-interest and the interests of the state. For instance, enmity with the United States and Israel is a core tenet of their ideology, and any cooperation or normalization with these countries would challenge Iran's self-image. Third, the ideology serves as a rallying point for the regime's supporters, allowing them to maintain legitimacy and control. As a result, the ideology is likely to continue shaping Iran's policy decisions, regardless of the individual beliefs of its leaders.
Russia's Approach to Foreign Policy
In my experience, Russian diplomats are generally skilled at maintaining a straight face and sticking to their talking points without expressing sincere belief. They present themselves as defenders of international law and opponents of American aggression, criticizing the US for its military interventions and disregard for the United Nations. They often offer alternative economic and political support to countries, providing a different option from American influence. While some countries may be tempted by these offers, it is important to recognize that Russia pursues its own interests and is willing to compromise moral principles to achieve its goals. Ultimately, it is vital to understand the motivations and actions of the Russian government within the broader context of power politics and self-interest.
The Issue of Ransom for Hostages
The podcast discusses the problematic history of the United States paying ransom to the Iranian regime in exchange for the release of hostages. The speaker emphasizes that this bipartisan policy of providing money to an odious regime has not been effective and calls for tougher responses that do not involve paying ransom.
Turkey's Relationship with the West and Russia
The podcast explores Turkey's recent shift towards a more favorable stance towards the West, potentially signaling a realization that their heavy anti-Western approach did not yield significant benefits. It is suggested that Turkey recognizes the limitations of aligning themselves too closely with Russia, as demonstrated by Ukraine's poor experience with Russian-made weapons. However, it is also highlighted that Erdogan's ambitions may not align with what the United States or the West are willing to offer, raising the question of whether this shift in Turkey's position is sustainable.
In keeping with the Remnant’s long tradition of providing edifying counter-programming, Jonah’s joined today by Ken Pollack—AEI senior fellow and expert on the Middle East—to discuss the latest on Iran and American policy toward the region. “Since the 1979 revolution,” Dr. Pollack writes in his latest piece for Foreign Policy, “Iran’s leadership has single-mindedly attempted to dominate the Middle East and drive the United States and Israel out.” But now, Tehran is shifting its approach, and Iranian grand strategy is placing a new emphasis on diplomacy. What does that mean for the United States? How will it affect other relationships between nations? And does Jonah’s general grouchiness stem from his political realism?