Trevor Tombe, a Professor of Economics at the University of Calgary specializing in international trade, joins the discussion on the intricate dynamics of trade relations between Canada and the U.S. He shares insights on the ramifications of tariffs and the challenges posed by interprovincial trade regulations. The conversation highlights the importance of diversifying trade partnerships and the economic impacts of a fluctuating Canadian dollar. They also embark on a personal challenge to buy only Canadian-made products, illustrating local support amidst trade tensions.
The potential tariffs from the U.S. could lead to a $160 billion decline in Canadian exports, resembling a medium-sized recession.
Interprovincial trade regulations in Canada create significant barriers, inflating costs by up to 15% and hindering economic growth.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on Canada
The recent announcement of tariffs by the United States on goods from Canada and Mexico is expected to create significant economic uncertainty. Initially set at 25% for most goods and 10% for energy, this move raised alarms about a potential trade war, especially after Canada’s retaliation. Economic experts warn that the impact could be severe, with estimates suggesting a potential $160 billion decline in demand for Canadian exports, resembling the scale of a medium-sized recession. The unpredictability regarding how long these tariffs might last adds further to the anxiety for Canadian businesses and investors, making planning increasingly difficult.
Economic and Currency Effects
A weaker Canadian dollar has multiple implications for both consumers and investors amid the looming trade threats. Individuals holding investments in U.S. assets may benefit from a declining Canadian dollar, while lower-income Canadians, who spend a larger portion of their income on imports, may face higher costs due to increased prices. Despite tariffs not yet being officially enacted, the mere anticipation has led to inflationary pressures, reflecting a broader decline in consumer confidence and economic growth. Additionally, heightened uncertainty has significantly affected business investments, potentially stunting productivity and employment in the Canadian economy.
Internal Trade Barriers in Canada
Compounding the issues stemming from international tariffs are the trade barriers that persist among Canadian provinces, which hinder intra-country commerce. Provinces impose varying regulations that can inflate costs by as much as 15%, significantly affecting the ability of businesses to operate efficiently across borders. Recent discussions have highlighted how these internal barriers not only limit consumer choice but also impact economic growth, particularly as Canada seeks alternatives to U.S. trade. Efforts to harmonize trade regulations and reduce these barriers could lead to a more robust Canadian economy, particularly in light of current external pressures.
Trade war, no trade war, trade war, no trade war. On this week’s TLDR, economist Trevor Tombe joins the team to talk about a week in geopolitical whiplash, and where it leaves the Canadian economy. Plus, we go deep on one of the internal challenges hobbling our country’s economic prospects: interprovincial trade regulations.
This episode was hosted by Devin Friedman and business reporter Sarah Rieger. Follow us on other platforms, or subscribe to our weekly newsletter: linkin.bio/tldr
The TLDR Podcast is offered by Wealthsimple Media Inc. and is for informational purposes only. The content in the TLDR Podcast is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell assets or securities, and does not represent the views of Wealthsimple Financial Corp or any of its other subsidiaries or affiliates. Wealthsimple Media Inc. does not endorse any third-party views referenced in this content. More information at wealthsimple.com/tldr.
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