Higher Bond Yields and Interest Rates Are Here to Stay
Nov 10, 2023
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Sarah Hansen, Morningstar Inc markets reporter, explains the new normal of bond yields and interest rates. Adam Fleck, director of research for ratings and ESG for Morningstar Research Services, discusses how companies with union workers can compete against non-union firms. Topics also include Apple's solid fiscal fourth quarter, McDonald's resilience under inflation pressure, and fixed-income market opportunities for investors.
Higher bond yields are tightening financial conditions, impacting borrowing costs and stock market outlook.
The current higher bond yields and interest rates are a return to normalcy, challenging the expectation of returning to pre-pandemic rates and suggesting rates could stay higher for an extended period.
Deep dives
Financial conditions and their impact on the economy
Financial conditions refer to various factors, including interest rates, bond yields, equity valuations, the strength of the dollar, and credit spreads, that affect the economy, businesses, and consumers. Tighter financial conditions indicate limited credit access and higher borrowing costs, potentially leading to an economic contraction. Conversely, looser financial conditions signify an expanding economy with easier borrowing. Higher bond yields resulting from the Fed's fight against inflation are tightening financial conditions, impacting borrowing costs and stock market outlook.
Normalizing bond yields and long-term interest rates
The current higher bond yields and interest rates are not anomalies but a return to normalcy. The period between the 2008 crisis and the pandemic saw artificially suppressed rates due to quantitative easing, which deviated from historical averages. Strategists argue that the last 15 years were the exception, and long-term yields historically averaged around 5.9-6%, higher than current levels. This shift in perspective challenges the expectation of returning to pre-pandemic rates and suggests that rates could stay higher for an extended period.
Labor unions' impact on businesses and investing
The impact of labor unions on businesses varies. Higher unionization levels correlate with fewer moats and lower returns on invested capital. However, there are positives, such as lower employee turnover and improved workplace safety. Companies with high union levels can compete against non-union firms, as demonstrated by examples in the airline and parcel carrier industries. However, a differentiated strategy, solid execution, and robust competitive advantages are essential for success. Despite the benefits and risks, individual company analysis and valuation remain crucial in investment decisions.
Sarah Hansen, Morningstar Inc markets reporter, explains the new normal of bond yields and interest rates and where investors can find fixed-income opportunities. Adam Fleck, director of research for ratings and ESG for Morningstar Research Services, discusses how companies with union workers can compete against non-union firms.
Apple’s Solid Fiscal Fourth Quarter
Eli Lilly’s Diabetes Drug Lift in Q3
McDonald’s Is Resilient Under Inflation Pressure
‘Higher for Longer’ Era
Tight vs. Loose Financial Conditions
'Higher-for-Longer' Side Effects
Fixed-Income Market
Opportunities for Investors
Are Labor Unions Bad for Business?
Risks and Benefits of a Unionized Workforce
Can Unionized Companies Compete with Non-unionized Companies?
GM, Ford, and Stellantis Uncertainty Ratings
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