Real Vision: Finance & Investing #1027 - Higher For Longer… Then What? with Darius Dale? | Inflation, Rates, & The Fed
May 1, 2024
Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, discusses market reactions to Fed policy, potential market trajectory, tokenization of real assets, gold IRA investments, Treasury market analysis, investor positioning, market trends, market signals, economic themes, AI vs human judgment, and a new crypto product.
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Powell Fed and Fiscal Dominance
- The Fed under Powell aims to ease monetary policy while facing fiscal dominance pressures.
- Despite high inflation and a resilient economy, the Fed tries to slow balance sheet runoff to support fiscal needs.
Inflation Acceleration Signals Pivot
- Inflation data shows a recent acceleration with inflation possibly stabilizing at elevated levels.
- Productivity growth slowing against rising wages could force the Fed toward a 'higher for longer' rate stance.
Market Positioning Signals Risk Ahead
- Market positioning shows reduced net long bets, signaling short-term relief but a long-term crash risk.
- Treasury’s tightening with expected slower inflation prints creates uncertainty around sustained risk-on market regimes.