80,000 Hours Podcast #193 – Sihao Huang on navigating the geopolitics of US–China AI competition
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Jul 18, 2024 
Sihao Huang, a 2023 Marshall Scholar and tech policy expert at RAND, dives into the complex world of US-China AI relations. He discusses how advanced AI doesn't always need massive compute power, which poses risks if misused by China. Their AI advancements are compared to the US, shedding light on China's self-sufficiency in semiconductors and AI governance. Huang emphasizes the urgent need for cooperative regulation to prevent reckless competition and potential conflict, pushing for a better understanding of AI's impact on global security.
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The Complexities of the AI Race
- A race dynamic exists in AI development, but it's complex.
- US national security folks are motivated by a race with China, while Chinese engineers feel anxious about catching up to the US, but Western engineers primarily compete amongst themselves.
Reckless Development in AI Race
- Reckless AI development is a cost of racing, shown by Oppenheimer's dilemma about nuclear chain reactions during World War II.
- Nations may be forced to deploy unsafe AI military systems due to pressure, leading to unintended conflicts.
Avoiding an AI Race
- Achieve strict dominance over adversaries in AI.
- Coordinate with China to internalize risks and make sure that AI benefits are shared to make safe AI development seem less zero-sum.