23.8% Taiwan Conflict 2024 Odds (Russian Roulette), China & USA Decoupling vs. Containment & Southeast Asia Upside vs. Startup Risk Management

"What does it mean when each economy is going back to the spheres and how do technology companies handle it? The first thing that came to mind is limited access to Taiwanese semiconductors. We'll see the relocation of US chips or see chips from China, with no fancy or commercial applications. Suddenly, the cost of computing will go up. The most advanced microchips will be more expensive, and technologies reliant on them, such as mobile phones, virtual reality headsets, and AI, will be relatively more insulated from the rise of computing power." - Jeremy Au

"We see a lot of reshoring and moving manufacturing out of China that has benefited Southeast Asia. Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore are seeing net inflows in manufacturing activity from American and Chinese factory capital, which is trying to get that 'made in Southeast Asia' brand. We still see a lot of talent from China moving to Southeast Asia to continue building and manufacturing, which is detrimental to some manufacturing towns in China."- Jeremy Au

"The Chinese are buying all the condos" is a headline that people love, but they are also starting businesses and diversifying away from a pure China play. Five years ago, the average Chinese entrepreneur would not have considered going outside of China because the world's greatest market was on their doorstep. Whether it is due to the COVID measures or the lockdown in Shanghai, Chinese entrepreneurs became more aware that it might be good to have an outside China strategy." - Shiyan Koh

In this discussion between Jeremy Au and Shiyan Koh, they reflect on the impact of global decoupling and the possible scenarios that could result from it. They discuss how the recent geopolitical tensions between China and the US have accelerated this trend, and how it could affect startups and businesses around the world. They suggest that businesses should prepare for a range of scenarios, including the possibility of supply chain disruptions and political instability. Some measures that startups could take include identifying their dependencies on supply chains, preparing efficiency measures, and having a list of contingency plans.

The speakers also touch on the potential impact of global decoupling on immigration, with Chinese nationals considering localization of their immigration status in other South Asian countries. They discuss the waves of Chinese immigration and how localizing has helped these communities to weather political tensions in their host countries. Ultimately, they offer a hopeful message, citing the historical resilience of humanity in the face of conflict and war. Overall, the discussion highlights the need for businesses to be prepared for a range of scenarios and to consider the impact of geopolitical tensions on their operations.

Read the transcript at www.bravesea.com/blog/taiwan-conflict-2024

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