Amit Segal, Chief Political Analyst for Israel’s Channel 12, and Nadav Eyal, Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist, delve into the latest tensions in Israel and Gaza. They discuss Netanyahu's controversial firing of Shin Bet head Ronen Bar and its potential fallout. The duo analyzes shifting military strategies amid escalating violence, the complexities of ceasefire negotiations, and the disconnect between government objectives and public sentiment. Their insights provide a deep understanding of the political maneuvering at play during this critical time.
Netanyahu's military escalation against Hamas reflects his weakened political standing and reliance on far-right coalition pressures amid election risks.
Increased U.S. military support signals a potential shift in American policy, allowing Israel greater operational freedom without strict humanitarian demands.
Public sentiment in Israel prioritizes the safe return of hostages, creating tension between military strategies and citizens' concerns over political motivations.
Deep dives
Political Pressure to Resume Warfare
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing immense pressure to resume military operations against Hamas due to escalating demands from far-right coalition partners Ben Gvir and Smotrich. With recent polling indicating a significant risk of losing the upcoming elections, Netanyahu appears to believe that military confrontation is his only viable political option. The context of Netanyahu's weakened political standing since October 7th has led to an apparent reassessment of the influence and position of the Israeli security establishment, which is perceived as even more vulnerable. As a result, Netanyahu's decision to intensify military actions is viewed as an attempt to consolidate power and regain public favor amidst a politically volatile atmosphere.
Implications of U.S. Military Support
The renewal of fighting between Israel and Hamas comes alongside significant U.S. military support, which is expected to enhance Israel's operational capabilities significantly. This includes new munitions shipments, which are viewed as critical for executing a more aggressive military strategy aimed at dismantling Hamas more effectively. Analysts suggest that this military support could also signal a shift in the U.S. stance towards granting Israel greater flexibility in conducting operations without stringent demands for humanitarian concessions. This shift may allow Israel to pursue objectives of total domination in Gaza, indicating a distinct departure from previous diplomatic approaches.
Hostages as a Central Concern
Public sentiment in Israel has firmly prioritized the safe return of hostages taken during prior conflicts over the military strategy against Hamas. Polling data shows that a significant majority of Israelis favor securing the hostages' return even if it means compromising on military objectives. This perspective presents a dichotomy within Israeli society, as many citizens simultaneously express support for military operations against Hamas. The families of hostages have vocalized their discontent regarding the political motivations behind military actions, feeling that their loved ones' safety is at risk due to the government's political calculations.
Infighting Within the Security Establishment
Netanyahu's efforts to fire key figures within the Israeli security apparatus, such as the head of Shin Bet, Ronan Bar, reveal deep-seated tensions within the security hierarchy. He has cited a lack of trust in Bar's leadership as a pressing reason for his decision, despite the acknowledgment that Shin Bet failed to prevent the October 7th attack. The political implications of these personnel changes are further complicated by ongoing investigations into alleged misconduct involving Qatari funds, suggesting a broader strategy by Netanyahu to distance himself from accountability. The internal power dynamics and public perception of the security establishment's failures may ultimately shape the trajectory of Israel's response to Hamas.
Regional Military Engagements and Broader Implications
The resumption of hostilities in Gaza coincides with escalating military engagements between the U.S. and Iran-backed Houthi rebels, broadening the regional implications of these conflicts. U.S. military operations are positioned as a direct counter to perceived Iranian influence, which can further impact U.S.-Israel relations and strategies against common adversaries. Signal interpretations among analysts suggest that heightened military engagement in multiple fronts indicates a transitioning landscape for U.S. foreign policy in the region, with complexities that affect Israel's military calculations against Hamas. Concurrently, the interlinking of these conflicts might provide both a test of resolve for Israel and a critical juncture for U.S.-Middle East policy.
We recorded an emergency episode as fighting resumes against Hamas in Gaza, ending a cease-fire that lasted 57 days; as military operations escalate between the U.S. and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen; and as Prime Minister Netanyahu moves to fire Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet security agency. To discuss this rapidly-evolving escalation of events we are joined by two of Israel’s leading journalists and mainstays of this podcast.
Amit Segal is a columnist for Yediot Ahronot, and chief political analyst for Israel’s Channel 12.
Nadav Eyal is also a columnist at Yediot, and the recipient of Israel’s equivalent of the Pulitzer Prize. He is also an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.
