Who Are The New Players in Syria? w\ Charles Lister | EYES ON PODCAST
Dec 14, 2024
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Charles Lister, a Syria analyst for the Middle Eastern Institute, navigates the intricacies of the shifting geopolitical landscape in Syria. He dissects the rising influence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its attempts at political representation. The podcast also explores the complex alliances between Turkey, HTS, and various factions, emphasizing military shifts influenced by the Ukraine conflict. Lister highlights the ongoing chaos in northern Aleppo, challenges from ISIS, and the broader implications of international involvement on Syria’s fragile governance.
The collapse of the Assad regime has opened a diplomatic vacuum in Syria, leading to increased engagement from neighboring countries.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's shift towards inclusive governance highlights both potential for stability and skepticism from minority communities regarding their intentions.
Turkey's complex role in managing relations with HTS and refugee dynamics is crucial for achieving regional stability in post-war Syria.
Deep dives
The Transformation of Syria's Political Landscape
Recent changes in Syria have caused a significant transformation in its political landscape, particularly with the collapse of the Assad regime. Various international actors, including Turkey and Iran, have played varying roles, but this sudden vacuum has prompted a surge of diplomatic activity from neighboring countries. The group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), previously designated as a terrorist organization, is increasingly taking control of the situation, leading to a chaotic yet swift political transition in Damascus. This evolving dynamic raises questions about the future governance of Syria and the potential for stability or renewed conflict.
The Human Cost of Conflict
The Syrian civil war has resulted in immense human suffering, with the regime's oppressive tactics leading to hundreds of thousands dead and many more missing. The regime's history of utilizing chemical weapons and indiscriminate violence has left a lasting impact on the Syrian population, who have faced decades of tyranny. The current developments offer a glimmer of hope for change, but the trauma endured by Syrians cannot be overlooked. Many citizens are looking for a more inclusive government that acknowledges past atrocities while striving for a peaceful future.
HTS's Pragmatic Shift
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has demonstrated a notable shift in approach, showing a willingness to embrace different communities and even engage with outside diplomatic channels. Despite its conservative Islamist roots, HTS appears to be seeking a more significant role in the broader Syrian society while trying to avoid the mistakes made by groups like the Taliban. Initial indicators suggest they are attempting to govern inclusively by reaching out to various ethnic and religious minorities. However, skepticism remains regarding their long-term commitment to inclusive governance, as mistrust still lingers among minority groups who fear HTS's true intentions.
Turkey's Strategic Position
Turkey's evolving relationship with HTS and other factions in Syria underscores its crucial role in regional stability. HTS's governance has led to a relatively stable environment in northwestern Syria, presenting a paradox as Turkey balances its interests without fully endorsing HTS. The dynamics of refugee management have become a focal point of Turkish policy, as the government aims to prevent a new influx from Syria. Turkey's ambiguous stance during negotiations with HTS reflects the complexity of managing a diverse array of actors on the ground while navigating its own geopolitical interests.
The Future of Governance in Syria
Looking ahead, the formation of a new Syrian government hinges on the willingness of HTS and other stakeholders to incorporate various communities and perspectives. Early signs indicate a potential for cooperation between HTS and former adversaries, yet the challenges remain significant as Syria grapples with the aftermath of civil war. The transitional government's success will depend heavily on its inclusivity and ability to address the needs of all Syrians, including ethnic and political minorities. As various international actors seek to influence this process, the potential for more conflict looms if genuine representation is not achieved within the new political framework.
Today we're joined by Syria analyst for the Middle Eastern Institute Charles Lister to talk what comes next in Syria. Find Charles here:⬇️ https://x.com/Charles_Lister?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor https://www.syriaweekly.com/ Support the show on Patreon:⬇️ https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse Find Jason here ⬇️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lyons-666873316?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_app https://bsky.app/profile/bgsilverback73.bsky.social Find Andy Milburn here:⬇️ https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8 https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023 https://amilburn.substack.com/ https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations https://bsky.app/profile/andy-milburn.bsky.social https://open.substack.com/pub/amilburn/p/journal-of-a-plague-year?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=emo6q&utm_medium=ios Find Mick Mulroy here:⬇️ https://fogbow.com/ https://www.loboinstitute.org/ https://x.com/MickMulroy?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/ https://bsky.app/profile/mickmulroy.bsky.social #syria #hts
