LessWrong (30+ Karma) “Taiwan war timelines might be shorter than AI timelines” by Baram Sosis
TL;DR: Most AI forecasts generally assume that if a conflict over Taiwan occurs, it will largely be about AI. I think there's a decent chance for a conflict before either side becomes substantially AGI-pilled.
Thanks to Aaron Scher for comments on a draft of this post.
I'm no China expert, but a lot of China experts seem pretty concerned about the possibility of a conflict over Taiwan. China is currently engaged in a massive military buildup and modernization effort, it's building specialized invasion barges like the Mulberry harbors used in the WWII Normandy landings, and it's conducting amphibious landing exercises with civilian roll-on/roll-off vehicle ferries, many of which China modifies for potential military use. Increasingly frequent military exercises around Taiwan could let China rapidly transition to a full blockade. Its internal propaganda suggests that Taiwanese "provocations" could justify military action, and its leadership continually talk about Taiwan's "return to China", with some even openly discussing "reeducation".
By some cosmic coincidence, 2027, the PLA's centennial, is sometimes identified as the year when the PLA hopes to be ready for a conflict over Taiwan. This doesn't mean China will immediately pull the trigger, but they might want to be prepared by [...]
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Outline:
(04:25) Impacts on compute
(07:41) Securitization
(08:20) Conclusion
The original text contained 6 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
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First published:
January 1st, 2026
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.