Winners and Losers After DeepSeek — ft. Robert Armstrong
Jan 30, 2025
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In this insightful conversation, Robert Armstrong, a U.S. financial commentator for the Financial Times, delves into the ramifications of the DeepSeek trade. He discusses the uninvestable nature of Chinese stocks despite their corporate developments. Additionally, Robert compares European and U.K. stocks to their U.S. counterparts and shares his perspective on Trump’s comments regarding interest rates. He also addresses how the current immigration crackdown could influence investors, offering a comprehensive view of today's market landscape.
The emergence of DeepSeek has disrupted the tech market by introducing cost-effective alternatives, significantly impacting traditional market leaders like NVIDIA.
A record high in private equity stake sales signals investor demand for liquidity due to longer timelines for expected exits in the industry.
Rising unemployment among recent MBA graduates indicates a shift in the labor market, challenging traditional employment pathways and requiring flexibility in job strategies.
Deep dives
Impact of DeepSeek on Tech Stocks
A new AI app named DeepSeek has caused a significant downturn in major tech stocks, erasing over a trillion dollars in market value. The app's ability to deliver comparable results to established models at a fraction of the cost has raised concerns among investors that existing tech leaders could struggle to maintain their competitive edge. Notably, NVIDIA saw a staggering 17% drop, leading to a loss of nearly $600 billion, highlighting the vulnerability of tech-centric investment strategies. The market is grappling with the realization that cheaper alternatives in AI development may disrupt the current profit dynamics in the tech industry.
The Shift in AI Competitive Landscape
The emergence of DeepSeek has altered perceptions about the AI sector, moving it from a winner-takes-all model to a more competitive environment. Investors had anticipated a market dominated by a few leading players, but DeepSeek's breakthrough indicates that significant value might be shared among multiple companies. This revelation challenges previous assumptions about the economics of AI development and presents new opportunities for users and smaller developers. As costs for training AI models decline, it could lead to more innovation and accessibility in the AI space.
Record Levels of Private Equity Sales
In light of a slowdown in deal-making, investors have been rapidly divesting their stakes in private equity, with sales hitting a new record high in secondary markets. The overall trading volume in these markets rose by 45% from the previous year, indicating a growing demand for liquidity among institutional investors. This trend is partly fueled by the protracted timeline for expected exits in private equity, forcing many to seek immediate liquidity options. The current conditions may also hint at upcoming opportunities for discerning buyers looking to acquire undervalued assets.
Rising Unemployment Rates Among Graduates
Recent statistics reveal a troubling rise in unemployment rates among recent college graduates, with MBA programs facing particularly high levels of joblessness. Almost a quarter of job-seeking graduates from elite institutions such as Harvard and Stanford remain unemployed three months after graduation, a record high. This trend signals a shift in the labor market, where traditional pathways to employment in sectors like consulting and banking are tightening due to changes in hiring practices, including increased reliance on technology. Graduates may need to consider flexibility in job options or geographical relocation as key strategies in navigating this challenging employment landscape.
Changing Investment Strategies in Global Markets
There is a noticeable shift in investor sentiment, with many moving away from U.S. equities towards international markets as attracting capital begins to favor underperforming regions like Europe and the UK. Although U.S. companies have historically offered better growth prospects, current valuations suggest that they may be overheated compared to their international counterparts. The notion of rebalancing portfolios to include more international exposure reflects a belief in potential upside for these markets, particularly if economic recovery takes hold. Investors are advised to look for value opportunities in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and defensive contractors poised to benefit from future growth.
Scott and Ed open the show by discussing the stock market’s reaction to DeepSeek’s arrival, a record in private equity stake sales, and the rising unemployment rate among recent MBA graduates. Then Robert Armstrong, U.S. financial commentator for the Financial Times, returns to the show to break down the winners and losers of the DeepSeek trade. He explains why, despite significant developments in China’s corporate economy, he still believes Chinese stocks remain uninvestable. Robert also offers his thoughts on European and U.K. stocks relative to their U.S. peers, gives his take on Trump’s comments on interest rates, and explains how the immigration crackdown could affect investors.