Carney's military pledge — what it buys, and what it costs

In this episode of On The Line, Matt Gurney speaks with Christian Leuprecht — professor at the Royal Military College and Queen’s University, editor of the Canadian Military Journal, senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, and visiting fellow at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies in Brussels. His forthcoming book is The Military’s Response to Domestic Crises and Global Pandemics: Civil-Military Relations for Domestic Operations.

Their conversation follows Prime Minister Mark Carney’s major announcement earlier this week: a historic, immediate increase in Canadian defence spending to hit the NATO target of 2% of GDP. Some of that figure is, yes, a little creative from an accounting perspective. But much of it is real new money — and the scope is massive. 

This episode of On The Line is brought to you by the Métis Nation of Ontario. June is Indigenous History Month, a time to reflect on how Canada came to be.

When American forces marched north in the War of 1812, Métis in the Upper Great Lakes stood in defence of the lands and waters they called home. They fought at Fort Mackinac, at Sault Ste. Marie, and at St. Joseph Island alongside the British to protect what would become Canada. The Crown promised land and security in return. But when the war ended, those promises faded. Métis families who left Drummond Island to remain free from American rule reestablished themselves in Penetanguishene and Sault Ste. Marie. The British promised they’d be able to live free and undisturbed — only to have their land sold out from under them in the following decades. Still, they stayed, built homes, raised families, and held onto their rights.

In 2003, the Supreme Court of Canada affirmed what they had always known: that one of the Upper Great Lakes Métis settlements — the Sault Ste. Marie Métis community — holds rights protected under the Constitution.

For over two hundred years, Métis in the Upper Great Lakes have fought for this country, contributed to its economy, and defended their place in it. To learn more, visit OntarioMetisFacts.com.

But this isn’t about expanding capabilities. It’s about finally repairing a military that’s been allowed to decay. The money won't go as far as you might think. 

Matt and Christian unpack the geopolitical pressures driving the decision — and the political complacency that’s defined Canada’s defence posture for nearly 75 years. They talk about the procurement bottlenecks that will make implementation painful, the civil-military dynamics that will determine who’s actually accountable, and whether allies in Washington and Europe will be impressed. And finally, they get into the hard questions: how do you sustain this level of spending when Canada is already running structural deficits and showing little economic growth? And for Carney — is this a bold strategic play, or a long-term political gamble? Will the Canadian public really want to spend the amount of money all of this is going to cost?

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Thanks for listening. We’ll see you next week.