#240 The West’s Worst Mistake on China| Michael Listner
Feb 12, 2024
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Michael Listner, expert on China's information warfare and space activities, discusses China's information warfare, their space program's military objectives, the challenges of defining space weapons, China's strategy using law, media, and psychology, the lack of trust between US and China, countering China's psychological and lawfare tactics in space warfare, the brutality of the communist system, the shift in Western thinking towards China, and the importance of not disregarding strategic information.
China's military control of space raises concerns about space dominance and its potential impact on future space activities and security.
The ambiguity and loopholes in treaties like the Treaty on the Prevention of Placement of Weapons in Outer Space raise questions about their effectiveness in preventing the militarization of space.
China's cultural perspective and historical claims influence its space strategy, aiming to shape narratives, create political chaos, and promote long-term goals.
Deep dives
China's Ambition in Space
China's military has a strong interest in space and aims for space dominance. While the US sees NASA as a civilian organization, China's space program is controlled by the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The PLA is focused on military objectives and national security uses of outer space, while NASA focuses on exploration and technology development. China's cultural and historical perspective differs from the West, leading to a unique approach to geopolitics and space. China's military control of space raises concerns about space dominance and the potential impact on future space activities and security.
China's Military Interest and the Treaty on Prevention of Weapons in Outer Space
China's military has a strong interest in space dominance and the ability to control and deny adversaries the freedom of space activities. The Chinese Communist Party proposed the Treaty on the Prevention of Placement of Weapons in Outer Space (PPWT), positioning itself as an advocate for peaceful purposes in space. However, the treaty raises concerns as it is seen as a diplomatic weapon that can be used to manipulate perception. The Chinese and Russian proposals have not addressed the challenges of defining space weapons and do not cover ground-launched missiles, which are a significant concern. The ambiguity and loopholes in such treaties raise questions about their effectiveness.
Chinese Strategy: Shaping Perceptions and Challenging History
China's cultural perspective and historical claims influence its space strategy. The Chinese Communist Party adopts a gradual and long-term approach, aiming to shape narratives and create political chaos. China's activities in the South China Sea and its assertion of historical claims demonstrate this strategy. Similar tactics are used in space, such as landing on the moon and raising the Chinese flag, potentially challenging historical achievements like the Apollo moon landings. China's focus on shaping perceptions extends to space exploration and its portrayal in media, such as Hollywood movies. Social media platforms like TikTok provide an effective tool for promoting narratives that align with China's long-term goals.
Space Debris and Concerns for Security
The issue of space debris, particularly from China's activities, raises security concerns. China's reckless behavior in not properly defueling and disposing of upper stages creates a significant threat. Upper stage debris poses a greater risk than destructive anti-satellite (ASAT) tests. Chinese actions in space, such as the capture and redirection of satellites, indicate the potential for military exploitation and disruption of critical civilian infrastructure like communication satellites. Additionally, the impact of space debris on space activities and the potential targeting of satellites during events like the Super Bowl highlight the vulnerability and consequences associated with the militarization of space.
The importance of understanding state interests
In the podcast episode, the speaker emphasizes the significance of recognizing and prioritizing state interests when dealing with international relations. They argue that the decision-making process of countries like China and Russia is driven by their own self-interests, which may not align with those of other nations. It is important for countries, particularly the US, to approach such relationships from a position of strength and assertiveness, rather than solely relying on diplomatic dialogues. The speaker also suggests the establishment of a special legal warfare tiger team to address legal challenges and generate policy solutions.
The need for a realistic approach to international relations
Another key point discussed in the podcast is the need for a more realistic approach to international relations. The speaker critiques the idea of the end of history and emphasizes that nations act based on their state interests, not on global cooperation for economic prosperity. They highlight the importance of understanding the strategic motivations of countries like China and Russia, as they seek to reshape the international world order according to their own rules. The speaker cautions against falling into the trap of mirror thinking and emphasizes the significance of maintaining strength and flexibility in dealing with countries pursuing aggressive agendas.
The Chinese Communist Party may not seem all that good at propaganda, but that doesn't mean it's stupid when it comes to pushing the West's buttons. In this episode of China Unscripted, we look at China's information warfare, what it's doing in space and why the South China Sea matters when it comes to understanding China's ambitions.
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