Drunk Real Estate 105. Our 2025 Predictions Revisited: What We Got Right (and Wrong)
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Jul 31, 2025 The hosts revisit their 2025 predictions, analyzing what they got right and what missed the mark. They dive into inflation trends, interest rates, and the current state of the housing market, revealing where buyers are struggling. The chat turns to personal anecdotes about Starlink internet and an upcoming property adventure in Dallas. With insights on gold, silver, and cryptocurrency, they also explore the impacts of AI and global conflicts. Additionally, they humorously touch on political betting and the quirks of achieving Wikipedia fame.
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Recession Timing Debate
- A recession in 2025 is unlikely based on strong Q2 GDP data. However, a recession starting in Q4 2025 may be recognized retroactively in 2026.
- Jay Scott and Kyle Wilson believe no official recession will be declared in 2025 but remain open to late-year downturns.
Rate Cuts Expectations Split
- The panel expects about two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in 2025. Mauricio Rauld disagrees, expecting no cuts due to inflation pressures from tariffs.
- Interest rate decisions depend strongly on inflation persistence and Fed's balancing act over recession risks.
Mortgage Rates to Stay High
- Mortgage rates remain sticky around 6.8%, unlikely to fall sharply even with rate cuts. Housing finance is closely tied to 10-year treasury yields.
- Expect mortgage rates above 6.5% through 2025 with limited downward movement due to inflation and treasury market dynamics.