In Moscow's Shadows 177: Adaptation in Russia and Ukraine
Dec 1, 2024
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President Zelensky's recent proposal offers a transformative approach to Ukraine's occupied territories in exchange for NATO membership. The discussion reveals the political shifts driven by public sentiment and election pressures. Insights from four pivotal books shed light on both nations' military strategies and adaptations, revealing Ukraine's grassroots innovations compared to Russia's bureaucratic challenges. Resilience emerges as a key theme, with Russia's adaptations to economic sanctions showcasing an unexpectedly entrepreneurial spirit amidst conflict.
50:22
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Quick takeaways
Zelensky's proposal for faster NATO membership reflects a strategic shift towards diplomatic negotiations concerning occupied territories amidst changing public sentiment in Ukraine.
Russia's ongoing military adaptations demonstrate an evolving tactical sophistication, necessitating Ukraine to refine its diplomatic and military strategies in response to this challenge.
Deep dives
Zelensky's Call for NATO Membership
Ukrainian President Zelensky suggests that quick early NATO membership could be a key factor in addressing the ongoing conflict. He indicates that Ukraine is willing to soften its stance on occupied territories in exchange for NATO's protective umbrella. This proposal hints at a readiness to pursue diplomatic channels for regaining control over those regions while prioritizing the security of the remaining Ukrainian territory. Essentially, this represents a potential shift in Ukraine's negotiation tactics, as Zelensky seeks to assess the West's willingness to provide significant support.
Shifts in Ukrainian Public Opinion
Recent surveys indicate a notable change in the sentiment of the Ukrainian population regarding negotiations to end the war. As of late 2023, approximately 52% of Ukrainians expressed a desire for negotiations, showing an increase from 22% in 2022. Furthermore, a significant portion of those surveyed—about 27%—are open to concessions, including territorial compromises, as part of a peace agreement. This growing acceptance of negotiations marks a crucial shift in public opinion, which Zelensky needs to navigate carefully to maintain political support.
Zelensky's Political Risks and Challenges
Zelensky faces considerable political risks as he contemplates potentially unpopular concessions in negotiations. His approval rating has dropped from a high of 84% at the war's onset to around 60%, with increasing discontent among the populace. With a significant portion of the population favoring alternative leadership figures, such as Valery Zaluzhny, Zelensky must carefully balance his strategies to avoid alienation. His administration is not only dealing with the challenges posed by external conflict but must also consider the internal political landscape.
Understanding Russian Adaptation and Strategy
The ongoing war highlights Russia's capacity for military adaptation and strategic learning despite substantial early failures. Recent analyses suggest that the Russian military is evolving its tactics, employing smaller, mobile units and improving logistical operations. Such adaptations indicate that the Russian forces are not simply relying on overwhelming numbers, as previously assumed, but are demonstrating tactical sophistication. This evolution poses challenges for Ukraine and emphasizes the importance of solid diplomatic and military strategies moving forward.
President Zelensky's suggestion that military attempts to retake the occupied territories could be abandoned in return for rapid NATO membership for Ukraine does mark a change in tack. What is driving this political-diplomatic adaptation?
And, in the second half, I draw on four books that speak in different ways to how Russia has managed (and sometimes failed) to adapt to the military and economic struggle, to bring them to this position.
The books are:
Christopher Lawrence, The Battle for Kyiv (Frontline, 2023)
Mick Ryan, The War for Ukraine. Strategy and adaptation under fire (Naval Institute Press, 2024)
Stephanie Baker, Punishing Putin. Inside the global economic war to bring down Russia (Simon & Schuster, 2024)
Charles Hecker, Zero Sum. The arc of international business in Russia (Hurst, 2024)
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