In Moscow's Shadows

In Moscow's Shadows 181: Strap in for a Bumpy 2025

Dec 29, 2024

The discussion covers intriguing incidents like a tragic misidentification of a civilian aircraft by Russian air defenses, prompting a rare apology from Putin. It delves into Russia's vulnerabilities, highlighting how retirees are being manipulated into acts of sabotage. Cyber warfare tactics employed by Ukrainian hackers are also examined, showcasing the tense energy dynamics with Moldova. The outlook for Russia's future is bleak, with concerns about its reliance on China and internal trust issues, setting the stage for a tumultuous 2025.

34:47

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Putin's rare public acknowledgment of the Azerbaijani plane crash signals a shift in accountability amid complex geopolitical dynamics.

Recent aggressive military tactics by Russia, while bold, expose vulnerabilities that could lead to significant backlash against Putin's administration.

Deep dives

Tragedy of the Azerbaijan Airlines Crash

An Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash resulted from a mistaken identity incident involving Russian air defense systems. The aircraft, en route from Baku to Grozny, was reportedly hit by a Russian missile while attempting to land in poor visibility conditions. The pilots, under extremely challenging circumstances, tried to divert to a Kazakhstan airport but tragically lost their lives along with most passengers. This incident highlights a potential overreaction by air defense personnel amidst ongoing Ukrainian drone threats, raising concerns about operational protocols and accountability.

Intro

3min

Fog of War: A Blunder and an Apology

15min

Examining Russia's Vulnerability to Sabotage and Indirect Warfare

2min

Cyber Warfare and Geopolitical Tensions

12min

Reflections on Russia's Uncertain Future

2min

Sabotage under the Baltic, a grudging apology, a possible attack on a Russian cargo ship, firebombing ATMs, energy blackmail in Moldova... what connects them beyond a sense that, having changed his rules of engagement abroad in 2024, Putin may find this coming to bite him in 2025. Either way, it looks like the coming year will be a bumpy one, to say the least.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.

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