Discussion on US intelligence's role in Afghanistan, Coast Guard's involvement in intelligence gathering, challenges in the Arctic region, collapse of the Afghan government, confusion between Taliban and al-Qaeda, contradictory assessments, President Biden's focus, and importance of language skills in intelligence work.
The CIA's reluctance to sever ties with notorious warlords in Afghanistan, despite their involvement in the opium trade, caused conflicts within the US government.
The US struggled to address the complex issue of Afghanistan's opium industry, as efforts to eradicate it clashed with its economic significance.
Intelligence assessments of the war in Afghanistan were often more pessimistic than public statements, highlighting a tension between intelligence agencies and military leaders.
Deep dives
Pakistani warlords and CIA collaboration
During the war in Afghanistan, the CIA had longstanding relationships with notorious warlords and power brokers in Afghanistan, some of whom were involved in the opium trade. While the military and state department recognized the corruption and problems associated with these alliances, the CIA was reluctant to sever those ties, as these warlords provided valuable intelligence. This led to a conflict within the US government, with different agencies working at odds with each other.
Dilemma with Opium Industry
The US government faced a dilemma with the opium industry in Afghanistan. While efforts were made to eradicate poppy fields and combat the drug trade, the economic significance of opium cultivation made it a major part of Afghanistan's economy. Afghanistan became one of the largest producers of opium in the world, with estimates suggesting that one-third of the country's economic output was generated by the drug trade. The US struggled to find effective solutions to address this complex issue.
Differences in Assessments and Intel Failure
The intelligence assessments of the war in Afghanistan were often more pessimistic than the public statements made by generals and policymakers. While intelligence officials recognized the challenges and issues on the ground, the military and political leaders portrayed a more positive outlook to the American public. This discrepancy highlights the tension between intelligence agencies and the military, and raises questions about the failure to communicate the reality of the situation in Afghanistan.
Lessons from Vietnam and Short Memories
Despite the lessons learned from the Vietnam War, the US found itself getting entangled in a similar situation in Afghanistan. While promising not to embark on nation-building exercises, the US became embroiled in a prolonged conflict in Afghanistan. The lack of long-term thinking, the desire to avoid admitting failure, and the distraction of other geopolitical issues contributed to the extended duration of the war. The US has a tendency to forget the lessons of the past and repeat similar mistakes in subsequent conflicts.
Lack of Language Skills and Cultural Understanding
The lack of language skills and cultural understanding among US officials in Afghanistan was a significant hindrance to effective operations. The short duration of tours, reliance on translators, and frequent turnover of personnel prevented the development of deep knowledge and understanding of Afghan society. This lack of cultural awareness and language proficiency limited the ability to build effective relationships, comprehend local dynamics, and make informed decisions.
Author Craig Whitlock talks with Jeff Stein about US intelligence’s place in 20 years of lies and deception in Afghanistan, and Jeanne Meserve interviews Coast Guard Commandant Karl Schultz about a terror alert for the 9/11 anniversary.