Private lenders pile up cash, compete for LBOs, driving up risk
Oct 18, 2023
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Private credit lenders compete with banks for leveraged buyouts, increasing risk. Concentration of private credit among a few major asset managers raises concerns. Affiliation of asset managers and insurance companies contributes to an expanding lending loop. Benefits and risks of insurers partnering with asset managers in private credit sector are examined.
Increased competition between private credit lenders and syndicated bank loans in the revival of LBO activity poses challenges in identifying potential risks.
Concentration risk arising from dominant asset managers' lending ecosystems jeopardizes the middle market segment's financial strength and poses systemic risks.
Deep dives
LBO competition reviving in 2024 with private credit lenders and syndicated bank loan market competing
LBO activity is expected to revive in 2024, leading to increased competition between private credit lenders and rated syndicated bank loans. Private credit lenders, being less regulated, present challenges in identifying potential risks. In Europe, aggressive rate hiking has halted LBO activity and created opportunities for private credit lenders. However, concentration risk arising from a few dominant asset managers poses systemic risks and jeopardizes the financial strength of the middle market segment.
Asset managers building self-contained lending ecosystems and attracting new sources of funding
Major asset managers like Apollo, Blackstone, KKR, and Aries are rapidly expanding their direct lending operations. Their credit and insurance assets under management exceed $1 trillion. Growth rates for these lending ecosystems are significant, with credit assets under management increasing 160-300% over five years. Asset managers are attracting insurers, seeking expertise in private credit and diversification away from fixed income securities, resulting in improved investment returns.
Risks associated with asset managers' ecosystems and their impact on the economy
The opaqueness of the private credit market poses risks, with leverage increasing for middle market companies and spreading asset risk across the economy. This dependence on large asset managers for governance and risk management practices creates exposure. Maturity transformation is an emerging risk, leading to funding gaps and potential systemic risks if fire sales occur, impacting various asset classes. Addressing these risks is crucial as private credit products' AUM share grows.
Private credit lenders built stores of capital that we expect will be put to work competing with banks to fund a new wave of leveraged buyouts. In the first segment of this episode, we discuss LBO competition and the risks it poses. Later, our guest lays out the concentration of private credit among a handful of giant asset managers building their own, largely self-contained lending ecosystems.
Guests: Christina Padgett, Associate Managing Director and Sandra Veseli, Managing Director, both from Moody’s Investors Service’s Corporate Finance Group; and Rory Callagy, Associate Managing Director, with Moody’s Financial Institutions Group.
Host: Jeff Pruzan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service.
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