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Sound Investing

Investing at market high, market timing, best distribution strategy

Dec 4, 2024
01:08:30

The podcast is dedicated to answering questions about:

 Target date funds:  “Do you think someone that simply maxes out their retirement accounts with target date funds and total market funds will be “fine”?

Selecting a distribution strategy:  What advice can you give to a DIY investor who is trying to decide what to do about how they access their money to live on and how much to take out?

Buy and Hold vs. market timing:  I believe in buy and holding  index funds, with low expenses. I don’t think I need to pay an investment advisor to help me do that.  I see the Merriman Wealth Management firm offers buy and hold and market timing services and charges AUM fees.  This is very different from what you suggest on your Foundation website.  What is your relationship with the Merriman firm and what are your beliefs about market timing?

All small cap value portfolio:  Do you know investors who are investing 100% of their portfolios in small cap value?  It seems like it might be a smart thing to do with very long term investments for a very young person.

Time to start market timing:   I am thinking about using timing with a large amount of new money.  Who do you use for the market timing aspect of your portfolio management?  

Flexible vs. fixed distribution strategies:  "I believe you expect that a flexible withdrawal strategy will pay out more money to live on, as well as leave more money to heirs.  Bill Bengen seems to believe that this strategy is not sustainable over the long term even if a person had enough money to accept lower annual withdrawal amounts in market draw downs.  Flexible withdrawal strategies make sense to me but there isn’t much writt en about them.  What am I missing?”

The answer to this question includes 4 distribution tables:  

Table D1.4 - Fixed Distributions: S&P 500 Equity Portfolio - Conservative ($40,000/yr)

Table F1.4 - Flexible Distributions (Conservative-4.0%/yr): S&P 500 Equity Portfolio

Table D4.4 - Fixed Distributions (Conservative-$40,000/yr): US 4-Fund Equity Portfolio 

Table F4.4 - Flexible Distributions (Conservative-4.0%/yr): US 4-Fund Equity Portfolio 


Finally Paul reads four Ben Carlson quotes about the nature of bull and bear markets.  Paul makes reference to a table of annual Price to Earning (P/E)ratios starting in 1871 and another comparing the S&P 500 Price to Book Value from 2000 to 2024.


 

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