Coburn Ventures Podcast

#249: Failure Rates Vs. Mistakes in the Investment Industry Part 1 of 2

5 snips
Dec 4, 2025
The discussion dives into the importance of understanding the industry's failure rate before analyzing mistakes. It highlights how typical end-of-year meetings often fail to drive meaningful reflection. A distinction is made between industry failures and individual mistakes, emphasizing the need to avoid mislabeling outcomes. Using analogies, the conversation contrasts fields with zero tolerance for failure against those where misses are commonplace. Key takeaways include the value of reflective practices and using mistakes as a catalyst for growth.
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INSIGHT

Failure Rate Is The Background Noise

  • The industry's failure rate is the background 'water' investors swim in and is not the same as individual failure.
  • Confusing high failure rates with personal mistakes leads to guilt and unhelpful year-end reviews.
INSIGHT

Seeing The Future Is Fundamentally Uncertain

  • Humans can only
ANECDOTE

Bridges Versus 40‑Foot Putts

  • Pip compares bridge-building and golf to show different acceptable failure rates.
  • Bridges should have zero failure while 40-foot putts miss most of the time without implying mistakes.
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