#187 Danielle Di Martino Booth - Speculators will be taken down - the end of the Fed Put
Oct 23, 2023
auto_awesome
Danielle Di Martino Booth, financial analyst and author, discusses the crash of 1987 and the current market concerns. They predict an increase in real assets, commodities, and precious metals. They explore safe haven options like cash, treasuries, and gold. The podcast also discusses influential figures shaping elections and questions the necessity of the Federal Reserve. They recommend two documentaries and discuss film interests and insights on the Fed.
Excessive speculation in the market, fueled by SPACs, NFTs, and venture capital bubbles, poses a significant risk with valuations being off in stocks and bonds.
The potential risks of a prolonged credit event, similar to the dot-com bubble and credit crisis, are concerning due to high levels of leverage in corporate America and the potential impact of rising interest rates.
Deep dives
Concerns about excessive speculation in the market
In the podcast episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth expresses concern about excessive speculation in the market. She highlights the growing trend of exchange-traded funds based on single stocks, such as Tesla and Nvidia, and the excessive speculation surrounding them. She points out various forms of speculation, including SPACs, NFTs, and venture capital bubbles, suggesting that these indicate a high level of speculative activity. Danielle emphasizes that historical relationships between different market indicators have fallen apart, indicating the extent of valuations being off in stocks and bonds. Her main worry revolves around the dangers of excessive speculation and the disconnect from traditional market indicators.
Potential risks of a prolonged credit event
Danielle DiMartino Booth and Tim Price discuss the potential risks of a prolonged credit event in the market. They suggest that current market conditions may resemble the dot-com bubble of 2000 and the credit crisis of 2007. Danielle highlights the high levels of leverage in corporate America and worldwide, as well as the potential impact of rising interest rates on highly leveraged companies. She points out the increasing bankruptcies and difficulties in refinancing, signaling a significant shift in the market. Tim mentions the possibility of a broader trend leading to a huge move up in commodities and precious metals. Both speakers express concerns about the potential consequences of a credit event and its impact on the economy.
J. Powell's approach to monetary policy
Danielle DiMartino Booth discusses J. Powell's approach to monetary policy in the podcast episode. She highlights how Powell has been trying to break the Fed put and eliminate speculators' expectations of a bailout from the Federal Reserve. Danielle suggests that Powell's focus on maintaining higher interest rates for longer is part of his strategy to weed out speculators and address excessive risk-taking in the non-banking system. She mentions the impact of liquidity depletion from the system and the challenges faced by highly leveraged companies in refinancing. While Danielle agrees with Powell's current approach, she acknowledges the risks and potential backlash he might face in an election year if the economy worsens.
Potential risks and uncertainties in the US economy
Danielle DiMartino Booth highlights several potential risks and uncertainties in the US economy in the podcast episode. She mentions rising numbers of individuals collecting unemployment benefits in multiple states and increasing bankruptcies among companies with significant liabilities. Danielle also discusses the delay in federal income tax payments by California and the vulnerabilities of the US economy and administration. She expresses concerns about potential consequences in an election year, particularly if fiscal relief and stimulus measures are limited, which may lead to volatility and distress for the US population. Overall, she emphasizes the need to closely monitor indicators such as rising jobless claimants and bankruptcy rates in order to assess the state of the US economy.