Rime Allaf, a Syrian-born writer and political analyst, joins David Kilcullen, a counterinsurgency expert, along with Burcu Ozcelik and Mark Galeotti, to discuss the swift decline of the Assad regime. They delve into the complex emotions of Syrian refugees contemplating their return amid ongoing chaos. The conversation highlights the roles of foreign powers like Russia and Turkey, the military strategies of rebel groups, and the potential for a new, inclusive government in Syria's uncertain future.
Bashar al-Assad's regime collapsed rapidly due to military failures and declining support from allies, underscoring the fragility of authoritarian rule.
The emergence of HTS as a governing force raises concerns about its legitimacy and political intentions amid Syria's uncertain future post-Assad.
Deep dives
The Fall of Assad's Regime
Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria collapsed rapidly in a mere 11 days, a timeline marked by decisive military failures and the diminishing support from key allies like Russia and Iran. Once a symbol of brutal dictatorship, Assad's refusal to adapt amid the Arab Spring led to his ultimate downfall, as he fled to Moscow just before the rebels advanced on his capital. The rebel coalition, spearheaded by the Al-Qaeda-linked group HTS, capitalized on the regime's weaknesses and the public's growing discontent, sparking a nationwide insurgency that culminated in the regime's unraveling. This rapid political shift highlights the characteristics of state collapse, which often occurs expeditiously when a regime loses legitimacy and military control.
Syrian Sentiments and Future Uncertainty
In the aftermath of Assad's departure, Syrians are experiencing a tumultuous mix of emotions ranging from elation to anxiety about the future. The regime's fall has been a long-awaited event, especially for those who have suffered under the Asad family's rule for over five decades. However, many remain uncertain about the repercussions of HTS leading the charge and the potential for renewed conflict among various factions. Furthermore, the absence of a clear governance structure and ongoing fighting across the country raises questions about whether a stable and representative political future for Syria is achievable.
The Role of HTS and its Impact
HTS, although rooted in extremism, has attempted to present itself as a more moderate force capable of governing in the post-Assad landscape. The group’s emergence from chaos has drawn attention to its political sophistication, establishing a governance framework in areas it controls while avoiding the atrocities seen in other militant groups. However, skepticism persists about HTS’s long-term intentions and whether it can genuinely represent the aspirations of the Syrian people without reverting to extremist tactics. Their ability to build a legitimate governance model will significantly influence Syria's path forward and the response from both internal and external actors.
Regional Powers and Strategic Interests
The shifting dynamics in Syria post-Assad present complex challenges for regional powers such as Turkey, Russia, and Iran, each trying to salvage their interests in the new political landscape. Turkey sees the need to address Kurdish militias along its border, while also managing the return of Syrian refugees from its territory. Conversely, Russia’s focus appears to be on maintaining its military bases and influence, despite the loss of its ally. Meanwhile, Iran grapples with a diminishing proxy presence and the need to recalibrate its strategy after the rapid evolution of the conflict, indicating that the future of Syria will remain a chessboard for these regional powers as they navigate their competing interests.
How did the rebels manage to topple Bashar al-Assad’s regime so quickly? How inclusive will any new government realistically be? Who in the region wins and who loses? Andrew Mueller speaks with Syrian-born writer Rime Allaf, counter-insurgency expert David Kilcullen, Middle East security analyst Burcu Ozcelik and Russia expert Mark Galeotti.
