Will Albanese’s call with Trump save us from tariffs?
Feb 11, 2025
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In this engaging discussion, economist Susan Stone, the Credit Union SA Chair of Economics at the University of South Australia, offers her insights on trade tensions between the U.S. and Australia. She analyzes Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's call with Donald Trump and the potential exemption from hefty steel and aluminum tariffs. Stone elaborates on the complex trade dynamics, emphasizing Australia's significant imports from the U.S. and the implications of these negotiations for future relations amid looming economic conflicts.
Australia's Prime Minister Albanese's phone call with Trump emphasizes the importance of diplomatic efforts to negotiate exemption from tariffs.
The proposed 25% tariffs not only threaten Australia's steel and aluminium industries but also risk retaliatory actions affecting global trade dynamics.
Deep dives
Trump's Tariff Announcement and Exemptions
Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports to the United States, a decision made somewhat impulsively while on Air Force One. Initially stating there would be no exemptions, further discussions suggested that Australia might be considered for an exemption due to the trade surplus between the two nations. This surplus indicates that Australia buys more from the U.S. than it sells, which aligns with Trump's focus on trade deficits. Trump's fluctuating stance highlights his tendency to set a hard line before potentially backtracking depending on diplomatic relations.
Implications for Australia’s Industry and Diplomatic Relations
The potential tariff poses significant challenges to Australia's steel and aluminium industry even though the U.S. does not primarily source these materials from Australia. Concerns have been raised regarding how tariffs would impact Australia's position as a key exporter, particularly with the U.S. being a major market for these products. Furthermore, U.S. lawmakers have suggested that imposing tariffs would be insulting to Australia, especially in light of ongoing defense agreements like AUKUS. The outcome may largely depend on effective diplomacy and whether economic arguments can sway the U.S. administration.
Global Trade Dynamics and Economic Risks
The trade war implications extend beyond just Australia, posing risks of retaliation from other nations. Historical outcomes from similar tariffs indicate that they could lead to increased costs and economic uncertainty. The interconnected nature of global trade means that while the U.S. aims to revive local manufacturing, imposing tariffs may inadvertently harm American consumers and industries reliant on imported materials. As other countries seek alternative markets, the U.S. could face diminished competitiveness in international trade.
Donald Trump says no nation will be exempt, although there’s a prospect of Australia winning a rare reprieve from hefty tariffs being imposed on all steel and aluminium imports to the United States.
Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been on a phone call with the US president, urging him to exempt Australia from the 25 per cent import tax.
The key argument is that Australia imports a lot more from the US than it sells there.
Today, economist Susan Stone on the latest front in the trade wars and what it means for us.
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Dr Susan Stone, Credit Union SA Chair of Economics at the University of South Australia
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