Is the 'Trump effect' preventing Iran from attacking Israel?
Nov 19, 2024
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In this insightful conversation, Ksenia Svetlova, a former Knesset member and Middle East expert, delves into the peculiarities of Israel's reliance on Russia for negotiations concerning Hezbollah. Highlighting the strong Iran-Russia ties, she questions the feasibility of Moscow as a mediator. The discussion also covers the complex landscape of Israeli-Palestinian partnerships amidst escalating violence and the geopolitical ramifications of the U.S. elections on the Iran-Israel conflict. Svetlova's expertise shines as she unravels the intricate web of regional alliances.
Netanyahu's inclusion of Russia in ceasefire negotiations appears misguided due to the strengthening of Iran-Russia ties and their proxy relationship with Hezbollah.
Amidst ongoing violence and geopolitical shifts, there remains a persistent commitment to Israeli-Palestinian dialogue for peace despite the complexities of regional dynamics.
Deep dives
Current State of Israeli-Palestinian Peace Efforts
Efforts to foster Israeli-Palestinian partnerships face significant challenges, especially since the outbreak of violence following the October 7 events. Despite the turmoil, there remains a determination among advocates for peace to continue dialogue and projects that unite various groups across the region. Many individuals express a renewed sense of agency and hope, realizing that constructive engagement becomes even more crucial in times of conflict. This commitment to peace is viewed not merely as damage control, but as a necessary regional movement toward a comprehensive solution that integrates cooperation among Israelis, Palestinians, and neighboring countries.
Ceasefire Prospects in Lebanon and Gaza
The likelihood of a ceasefire in Lebanon seems uncertain, as tensions continue between Israel and Hezbollah, with negotiations underway but lacking clear details. While Israel appears to be interested in negotiations, there are concerns regarding its insistence on achieving a military victory in Gaza, complicating the potential for a settlement in Lebanon. This discrepancy raises questions about the overall reasonability of Israel's political strategy, especially given the more formidable threat posed by Hezbollah in contrast to the situation with Hamas. Ultimately, the quest for peace remains entangled with the intricacies of regional dynamics and the will of involved parties.
Influence of U.S. Politics on Middle Eastern Relations
The impact of upcoming U.S. elections on Middle Eastern geopolitics is profound, influencing relations between Israel, Iran, and Russia. Experts suggest that Iran's recent quietness might be a tactical move in light of the political shifts in the U.S., potentially reflecting their desire to navigate complex negotiations with a new administration. Meanwhile, Israel's complex relationship with Russia, particularly in regard to the ongoing Ukraine war and Iranian alliances, complicates any straightforward recalibration. The interactions between significant players like Elon Musk and Iranian officials signal potential avenues for dialogue, although the broader implications remain uncertain and multifaceted.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to include Russia in the process of negotiating a ceasefire with Hezbollah struck Middle East expert and former MK Ksenia Svetlova as "strange" given the strong Iran-Russia alliance and the countries' shared interests.
As the Ukraine conflict has worn on, she explained on the Haaretz Podcast, the Russians have become dependent on Iran's support and weapons supplies - and maintain a "close association" with Iran's proxy, Hezbollah, to help prop up the Assad regime in Syria, a key strategic partner for Russia. In this context, looking to Russia to keep a check on Hezbollah's activities on the Israeli border and monitor its rearming by Iran seems highly unrealistic.
In a wide-ranging conversation, Svetlova, currently the executive director of the Regional Organization for Peace, Economics & Security (ROPES) discussed the shifting alliances in the Middle East and Europe in the aftermath of the U.S. election and how it will affect the conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies.