Shiyan Koh, Managing Partner of Hustle Fund, and ​​Jeremy Au talked about three main points:

1. Singapore Port Traffic Jam From USA Tariffs & Middle East Conflict: Shiyan and Jeremy examined the severe traffic congestion at Singapore's port, now at unprecedented levels. Yemen's Houthi rebel attacks on Red Sea commercial shipping (in support of the Gaza conflict) has diverted container ships from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope route, thus forcing ships to refuel and unload cargo in Singapore instead of Middle Eastern ports. The USA Biden administration's increased tariffs on China have prompted Chinese exporters to expedite shipments before the tariffs take full effect, further exacerbating the congestion. The broader manufacturing "China Plus One" decoupling strategy has also compounded the supply chain management issues.

2. Climate Change Creating Arctic Shipping Route: Global warming is melting the Arctic North Pole ice, thus empowering ships to soon bypass traditional shipping routes through the Straits of Malacca and thus Singapore. They discussed why Russia and China are interested in overcoming the substantial infrastructural and financial challenges to establish viable northern ports, and why this is a negative for Singapore’s shipping industry over the course of the next 100 years - similar to the fall of the Venetian empire due to shifting trade routes.

3. Trump 10% Global & 60% China Tariffs: Jeremy noted that if Trump wins the 2024 election, his proposed tariffs could dramatically alter global trade dynamics, with tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports. They discussed how this trade war scenario would force Chinese companies to accelerate relocating to Southeast Asia or other regions. Shiyan shared insights from her recent trip to China, emphasizing the country’s robust infrastructure capabilities and the strategic responses of Chinese companies.

Jeremy and Shiyan also talked about Singapore’s historical role as a deep-water port, technology’s role in shaping future economic landscapes, and the potential for increased domestic manufacturing in the US.

Watch, listen or read the full insight at https://www.bravesea.com/blog/global-supply-chain-disruptions

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