The Best Investment Writing The unstoppable dollar meets the immovable Mr Trump – Sahil Mahtani, Ninety One
Aug 26, 2025
Sahil Mahtani, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute, dives into the dynamic forces shaping the dollar amidst today’s economic landscape. He discusses historical dollar cycles and how structural factors maintain its dominance in global finance. The conversation touches on the inertia of the dollar, geopolitical changes, and the potential impact of recent political events. Sahil’s insights provide a captivating look at how macroeconomic and institutional trends could lead to major transformations in the currency's future.
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Four Forces Behind Dollar Inertia
- Dollar cycles endure because four reinforcing forces create strong momentum.
- These forces make dollar turns slow, rare, and hard to time.
Dollar's Embedded Global Role
- The dollar's dominance in trade, finance, and reserves creates persistent baseline demand.
- This embedded role cushions the dollar from short-term US fundamental shifts.
Asynchronous Global Policies Matter
- Policy divergence across major economies sustains rate and growth differentials for years.
- Those differentials attract capital and prolong dollar strength.